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1、 目录1绪论1.1研究背景和研究意义1.2国内外研究现状评述1.2.1金融互动、传染定义评述1.2.2金融危机传染机制评述1.3本文的研究思路和研究内容1.4本文的创新点2国际金融危机传染效应的理论基础分析2.1金融危机国际传染的定义2.2金融危机国际传染的特征2.2.1传染渠道的多样性2.2.2传染机制的复杂性2.2.3传染速度的快捷性2.2.4传染范围的广泛性2.3金融危机传染的根源2.3.1“全球化说”2.3.2“金融市场内在不稳定性说”2.3.3微观基础说3国际金融危机传染机制分析3.1金融危机传染机制概述3.2宏观传染机制3.2.1贸易传染渠道3.2.2宏观金融传染机制3.2.3货币
2、（美元）贬值传染途径3.3微观传染机制3.3.1流动性传染机制3.3.2“多米诺骨牌”传染渠道3.3.3预期传染渠道3.3.4资产负债表传染渠道3.3.5季风效应传染机制4金融市场间传染效应的实证分析4.1基于信息溢出角度下金融市场间联系的实证分析4.1.1信息溢出理论4.1.2 Hong方法介绍4.1.3实证分析4.1.3.1数据说明4.1.3.2美国股票市场和我国股票市场间信息溢出效应的实证分析结果4.2金融传染效应的实证分析4.2.1单位根检验4.2.2协整检验4.2.3格兰杰因果关系检验4.2.4实证分析4.2.4.1数据选取4.2.4.2单位根检验结果4.2.4.3协整检验结果4.2
3、.4.4格兰杰因果检验结果4.2.5金融市场间传染效应的结论5关于中国如何应对国际金融危机传染的政策建议5.1国际金融危机对中国的传染效应分析5.2关于应对金融危机传染的政策建议5.2.1优化经济结构5.2.2有步骤地开放金融市场5.2.3加大金融监管力度5.2.4逐步实行政治经济改革5.2.5积极推进国际金融体系的构建34中文摘要在经济全球化和金融一体化的背景下，金融危机爆发的频率越来越高，对世界经济造成的影响也越来越大。金融衍生工具的不断创新，金融市场间的高度相关性都造成了金融危机在不同金融市场间的传染。自上世纪90年代以来，世界范围内先后共发生了近10次金融危机，不管是1992年发生的欧
4、洲汇率危机、1997年发生的亚洲金融危机还是2006年发生的美国次贷危机等，都有相同的特征：即这些金融危机都具有强烈的传染性，特别是美国的次贷危机尤为明显。金融危机的传染性主要是指爆发于某国的金融危机会以极快的速度蔓延至周边国家或地区，进而形成区域性的危机。随着世界经济全球化和金融一体化的不断加深，金融传染的破坏力也越来越大，影响范围也越来越广，严重的将导致一国政权不稳甚至动乱。由此可见，如何有效地应对金融危机的传染是国际社会需要面对的普遍问题。始于美国的次贷危机爆发于2007年8月，此次金融风暴迅速传递到全球各个角落，进而引发了世界性的金融危机。经济全球化为金融危机的传染提供了客观条件，使得
5、金融危机的影响范围扩散到各个领域，例如货币市场、资本市场、债券市场、金融衍生品市场等金融市场。中国作为新兴经济体，自改革开放以来经济飞速发展，但是也无法抵御来自次贷危机的冲击。加入WTO之后，由于政策的客观要求，我国正不断提高对外开放的程度和规模，人民币已实现部分可自由兑换，资本项目也在逐渐开放，这一方面有利于我国融入世界金融体系，但同时也为次贷危机的传染创造了有利的条件。在这种情况下，以次贷危机为例对金融市场间危机的传染进行探讨和分析，并在此基础上提出有效的政策建议对于我国应对金融危机的传染有着重要的意义。本文主要从理论和实证两个方面分析和阐述了金融危机的传染，进而在此基础上提出了应对金融危
6、机的政策建议。具体而言，本文首先对互动和传染这一对既有联系又有区别的概念进行了简要叙述，互动是传染的基础，传染是互动的具体表现形式。然后对国内外目前的研究现状作了一个简要的总结，主要归纳了金融危机的传染机制，以及对不同的传染机制进行了比较。文章以美国次贷危机为例，利用单位根检验、格兰杰检验、协整检验、Hong方法等计量方法对美国次贷危机对中国的传染效应进行了分析，论证了危机传染的存在性。根据理论和实证分析，本文提出了一系列应对金融危机传染的政策建议。主要包括优化经济结构、加强国际经济合作和监管、有步骤地开放资本市场等等，以此促进我国金融市场的安全与稳定。关键词:金融一体化；传染效应；传染机制；
7、次贷危机 AbstractAt the background of economic globalization and financial integration, financial crisis is becoming more frequent, The impact of this to the world economy is growing.Financial derivatives of constant innovation and the high correlation between financial markets causes infection of finan
8、cial crisis between different financial market. Since the 1990s, 10 times of financial crisis happened in the worldwide. They all have the same characteristics: These financial crisis has strong infectious, especially Americas subprime crisis. The financial crisis of infectious mainly refers to the
9、outbreak of a financial crisis at fantastic speeds spread to neighboring countries or regions, then forms the regional crisis. With the world economy globalization and the deepening of financial integration, financial contagion of damaging effect isbiggerr and wider,it can even result in one country
10、 s regime instability and unrest.Therefore, how to effectively deal with the financial crisis of transmission is the general problems international community needs to face. Began in Americas subprime crisis broke out in August 2007, the financial turmoil rapid transfer to all corners of the earth, r
11、aising the world financial crisis. Economic globalization for financial crisis infection has provided an objective conditions for financial crisis sphere of influence spread to all fields, such as monetary market, capital market, bond market and financial derivatives markets, and other financial mar
12、kets. China as emerging economies, since the reform and opening-up rapid development of economy, also can not withstand from the subprime crisis hit. After joining the WTO, due to the policy of the objective requirements, China is constantly improve opening and degree of the scale, the currency has
13、realize part of the free convertibility, capital project also gradually open in this aspect, this is beneficial for China into the world financial system, but also for the infectious of the subprime crisis. In this case, or parts of the subprime crisis as an example for financial markets infection b
14、etween crisis carries on the discussion and analysis, and on this basis, proposes the effective policy Suggestions for China to deal with the financial crisis of infection is of great significance. This article mainly l analysis and discusses the financial crisis contagion from both theoretical and
15、empirica, and proposed policy Suggestions in this foundation against financial crises. Specifically, this paper firstly briefly introduced interaction and infect the pair relation and difference coexist concept., Interaction are catching foundation, transmission is an interactive specific form. Then gives a brief summary for domestic and foreign current research situation, mainly summarizes the financial crisis of infection mechanisms and for different types of infection mechanisms are compared. This article take the us subprime mortgage crisis
