《略论土地资源：英文翻译与译文》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《略论土地资源：英文翻译与译文（6页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、基于地理信息系统的元胞自动机对城市土地开发与土地利用变化的模拟吴太初 洪博义一、引言土地利用变化可以被视为是将某种土地的利用的方式转变为另一种利用方式，例如将农业用地转化为住宅用地；也可以被视为一块暂时，没有被开发的用地开始被开发。然而，土地并不会自己变化发展，所以土地利用变化的决策依赖于土地开发者的选择。除了社会经济和政治因素之外，相邻的土地使用模式也将影响土地开发者的决策行为。近年来，由于计算机科学的快速发展，基于GIS数据的元胞自动机开始广泛的应用于对城市土地利用变化的过程的模拟。本文以决策行为者之间的关系及土地利用变化为基础，通过收集土地利用的GIS数据、土地价格、人口、城市规划等信息
2、，将他们转化成50乘50平方米的网格，然后再利用元胞自动机的NETLogo功能模拟台南市的土地利用变化。实证研究领域是在台湾的台南市第五时期重组的领域。其研究期间为1989年到2016年，土地利用变化模型的估计期限是1989年到2006年，预测期间为2007年到2016年。本文的结构如下所述：下一章描述了本项研究所使用的方法，第三章是对变量和数据处理的描述，第四章是对土地开发概率逻辑模型的预测，第五章是对土地利用变化的模拟，最后第六章是本文的结论。二、方法A.研究领域。此研究领域坐落于台湾的台南市第五时期重组的领域，面积约631.49公顷。该地区原本是钓鱼场，1979年，台南市政府对该地区的城
3、市土地利用计划进行了审查，并计划将该地区作为重组区域进行开发。B.土地利用开发估算模型的概率。本文假设土地利用变化是否取决于土地开发者的决策。土地开发者对土地发展的决策行为取决于土地开发的概率。本文将土地开发可能的模型视为逻辑回归的概率模型。当概率值超过土地开发的阈值时，开发商将会选择开发土地。反之则选择不开发土地。C.土地利用转换的规则。利用CA进行模拟时，土地利用转换规则主要取决于土地开发的可能性和相邻土地的状况。当这种可能性比较大时，土地将会被开发。同时，当土里利用强度邻近的网格高于中心网格时，该中心网格将会有一个更高发展的可能性。规则如下：1.如果土地利用中心的网格是空置的，发展住宅用
4、途的可能性就会比发展成其他类型土地的可能性要大，如果邻近住宅的网格数使用大于3个，那么处于中心网格的土地使用将会由空置变为住宅用地。2. 如果土地利用中心的网格是空置的，开发商业用地的可能性大于其他类型的土地，如果邻近烛照用途的网格数大于5个，那么中心网格的土地将会由空置变为商业用地。3.如果位于中心网格的土地用途是住宅区，发展商业用途的概率大于住宅用途的概率，同时邻近住宅用地的网格数大于5个，那么中心网格的土地将会由住宅用地变为商业用地。4.如果位于中心网格的土地用途是商业区，发展住宅用途的概率大于商业用途的概率，同时邻近住宅用地的网格数不少于4个，那么中心网格的土地将会由商业用地变为住宅用
5、地。Simulation of Urban Land Development and Land Use Change Employing GIS withCellular AutomataTsai-chu Wu Bo-yi HongI. INTRODUCTION Land-use change can be regarded as changing a certain type of land use into the use of other types, such as from agricultural land use to residential use; also be seen
6、as a piece of land from undeveloped state into a development state. However, the land itself does not self-developed, so the actual land-use decision-making behavior depends on the choices of land developers. In addition to the socio-economic and policy factors, the adjacent land use patterns will a
7、ffect the land developers decision-making behavior. In recent years, due to the rapid development of computer science and complexity, it is widespread to use Cellular Automata (CA) with GIS data to simulate the process of urban land use change. This study, based on the relationship between actors de
8、cision-making behavior and land-use changes, collects GIS data of land uses, land price, population, urban planning and so forth, transforms them into 50 by 50 meters square grid, and then using NetLogo with Cellular Automata (CA) function to simulate the land-use change in Tainan city. The empirica
9、l study area is the reconsolidated area of the fifth period in Tainan city, Taiwan. The study period is 1989-2016 years which the period of estimating the land-use changing model is 1989-2006 and the forecasting period is 2007-2016. The organization of the paper is as follows: the next section descr
10、ibes the methods adopted in this study; section 3 describes the variables and data processing; section 4 estimates the Logistic model of land development probability; section 5 simulates land-use change; and finally, section 6 provides the conclusion. II. METHODS A. Study Area The empirical study ar
11、ea, covered 631.49 Hectares, locates in the reconsolidated area of the fifth period in Tainan city, Taiwan. This area was originally fishing farms. In 1979, Tainan City Government reviewed the areas urban planning and planned this area as a reconsolidated area to develop. B. The Estimating Model of
12、Land-use Development Probablity This article assumes whether land-use changes depend on the choice of land developers. Land developers for land development decision-making behavior depend on the probability of land development. This study set land development probability model by Logistic Regression
13、 Model. When the probability value exceeds a threshold of land development, land developers will choose to develop the land. On the contrary, choose not to develop. C. Land Use Conversion Rules In the CA simulation, Land-use conversion rules mainly depend on the land development probability and neig
14、hborhood conditions. When the probability of land development is greater than the threshold value, the land will be developed. Besides, when the land use intensity of neighboring grids is higher than the center grids, the center grid will have a higher development probability. The rules are as follo
15、ws: 1. If the land use in the center grid is vacant, the probability of developing residential use is the greatest than others type uses, and the grid numbers of neighboring residential use are greater than 3, then the land use in the center grid will be changed from vacant into residential use. 2.
16、If the land use in the center grid is vacant, the probability of developing commercial use is the greatest than others type uses, and the grid numbers of neighboring residentialuse are greater than 5, then the land use in the center grid will be changed from vacant into commercial use. 3. If the land use in the center grid is residential, the probabili
