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1、Robert Fogels forecasting Chinese economy in 2040发展经济学 development economics讲课人：李实本课程的结构1 发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变11 研究范畴12 发展的测度13 研究方法14 历史演变2 发展与增长理论21 增长与发展的差异22 增长理论： Harrod-Dmar model; Solow model; convergence: unconditional and conditional. 23 新增长理论24 人口增长与经济发展25 经济发展与人类发展3 发展与收入分配31 收入分配的现实与理论32 收入
2、决定机制与因素分析33 经济发展与收入差距34 经济增长与收入分配35 中国收入分配的变化趋势4 发展中国家中的贫困问题41 绝对贫困与相对贫困42 贫困线的设定43 贫困标准的选择：收入还是消费44 贫困的度量：贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距45 中国的贫困状态5 发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本51 劳动剩余与两部门模型52 劳动力市场中工资决定机制53 劳动力市场中歧视问题54 中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究55 劳动力流动与城乡差距56 教育、健康与经济发展6 土地与经济发展61 土地产权与租赁制度62 土地租赁合同理论63 土地产权制度理论7 资本市场与经济发展71 信贷市场的不完
3、善性72 农村信贷市场的功能与发展73 非正规信贷市场74 资本市场的制度与信贷市场的发展8 保险与发展81 保险的功能82 完善的保险模型83 保险的局限性：信息的不对称性84 保险的执行困难9 国际贸易与经济发展91 国际贸易的基本理论92 比较优势理论93 世界贸易格局94 贸易政策和发展战略10 制度与经济发展101 新制度经济学对经济发展的启示102 政府与市场的作用103 经济改革与经济发展11 发展经济学的未来方向111 理论还是经验研究？112 中国经济发展的经验如何上升到一般的经济发展理论1 发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1.1 研究对象（DE是什么）What is ec
4、onomic development? (1) Economic development is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants.(2) The process whereby the real per capita income of a country increases over a long period of time, subject to the stipulations that the number of peop
5、le below an absolute poverty line does not increase and that the distribution of income does not become more unequal. (3) Economic development is a means to make mass people out of poverty. What development economics studies? DE studies the economic structure and behavior of the poor (less developed
6、) countries (Lewis, 1984). Development Economics (DE) studies the economic transformation of developing countries (Debraj Ray, 1998). The major task of DE is to explore the possibilities of emancipation from poverty for developing economies (Yujiro Hayami, 2001). DE is about the big issues: how econ
7、omies and societies grow and change (N. Stern, 2001). Backward underdevelopment less developed countries poor countries emergent countries developing economies. 1.2 研究内容（研究什么）(1) 理解现在世界各国发展的不平衡性。(2) 理解发展中国家现在的问题需要理解发达国家的发展经验，具有比较的意义。(3) 对前人的发展理论要加以研究。(4) 发展涉及到很多层面， 1.3 发展的测度（measurement of developme
8、nt）GDP or GDP per capita 是否是衡量发展程度的最好指标？ 它在国际比较中的缺陷: 发展中国家GDP低估的问题； PPP方法来修正GDP； 人类发展指数（HDI）的意义和应用。China rank of HDI in the world, 1970-20101.4 研究方法(1) 理论研究与经验研究（theoretical and empirical approach） (2) 发展微观经济学与发展宏观经济学（development microeconomics and development macroeconomics）(3) 纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究1.5 历史
9、演变(1) 古典经济学是当时的发展经济学(2) 在20世纪40年代后期，现代发展经济学形成。Capital accumulation, as the necessary requirement, was the central focus of the models. The Harrod-Domar equation, although originally formulated for conditions of full growth in an industrial economy, was applied to estimate capital requirements in dev
10、eloping countries. Other early models of development strategy also featured capitalaccumulation: Rostows stages of growth, 1. Traditional society 2. Preconditions for take-off 3. Take-off 4. Drive to maturity 5. Age of High mass consumption Nurkses balanced growth, The theory hypotheses that the gov
11、ernment of any underdeveloped country needs to make large investments in a number of industries simultaneously. This would consequently enlarge the market size and provide an incentive for the private sector to invest.Rosenstein-Rodans external economies and big push,This theory is an investment the
12、ory which stresses the conditions of take-off. The argumentation is quite similar to the balanced growth theory but emphasis is put on the need for a big push. The investments should be of a relatively high minimum in order to reap the benefits of external economies. Only investments in big complexe
13、s will result in social benefits exceeding social costs. High priority is given to infrastruc-tural development and industry, and this emphasis will lead to governmental development planning and influence.Lewiss unlimited supply of labor and dual-sector modelThe process of economic growth is inextri
14、cably linked to the growth of capitalist surplus, that is as long as the the capitalist surplus increases, the national income also increases raising the growth of the economy. The increase in capitalist surplus is linked to the use of more and more labor which is assumed to be in surplus in case of
15、 this model. This process of capital accumulation does come to an end at some point. This point is where capital accumulation catches up with population so that there is no longer any surplus labor left.Prebisch-Myrdal-Singer hypotheses about terms of trade and import substitutionThe thesis postulates that terms of trade, between primary products and manufactured goods, deteriorate in time. Countri
