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1、McKinseywascommissionedinQ1 2003to providededicatedeffortinconductingin depthmarketsurveyandcollectdetailedinformationfrom4citieswithin2provincestoidentifythekeygrowthdriversinChina sbroadmarket 4productcategorieswereincluded G I Motilium OBGY Gyno NailInfection Sporanox providebusinessmodel proposa
2、lfortocapturethebroadmarket 1 McKinseyBroadMarketStudyProcess Projectdesign Q1 2003 ProjectreviewwithlocalandregionalJ Cteam Apr 03 Surveymarketselection Apr 03 Fieldworkin2citiesinShandong May03 1stinterimreport mid June03 Fieldworkin2citiesinSichuan mid June mid July03 2ndinterimreportandKillerIde
3、aworkshop endJuly03 Finalreport Aug 03 Presentationtocorporatemanagement Sept 03 2 BROADMARKETCANBEDEFINEDASCLASS2HOSPITALSANDBELOWATREGIONALCITYLEVELANDALLHEALTHCAREINSITITUTIONSATCOUNTYLEVELANDBELOW Regionalcity County Town Village Class3hospital Class2 belowhospital Pharmacy Clinic Broadmarket So
4、urce McKinseyanalysis 3 BROADMARKETDRUGSINCLUDEOTCAND OUTPATIENT RxDRUGS Source McKinseyanalysis Targetingeasilydiagnosed non lifethreateningdiseases Easytouse Relativelycheap Relativelysafewithfewsideeffect Examples OTC Mature New Motilium Gyno Daktarin Rx Outpatient In hospital Sporanox Sibelium C
5、ipramil Broadmarketdrugs 4 McKinseyKeyFindingsOverallMarketSituation 5 BROADMARKETREPRESENTS94 OFOVERALLDEMANDFORBROADMARKETDRUGS Class3hospital BroadmarketdrugsalesbreakdownbygeographyPercent Foronly2accordingcities DataforonlySichuanprovinceSource Interviewwithdistributors hospitals pharmaciesMcKi
6、nseyanalysis All4cities Broadmarketrepresents94 ofdemand 100 3 6 2 3 1 3 BnRMB Shandong Sichuan City 100 21 6 2 MnRMB County Town Village Motilium Gyno Daktarin Sibelium Broadmarket SalesbreakdownofproductPercent Otherchannelatcitylevel GDPpercapita ofcounty 9 19932 11 30018 5 80114 Countyiscritical
7、forbroadmarket 6 DUETOLOWINSURANCECOVERAGEANDRECENTREIMBURSEMENTPOLICIYCHANGES MOSTPATIENTSPAYBROADMARKETDRUGSBYTHEMSELVES InsurancecoverageinYantai Jining Forthosewithinsurance theycanusetheirpersonalaccounts RMB100 300peryear tocovertheirbroadmarketdrugexpenseInlooselycontrolledregion likeYantai p
8、atientscantreatthepersonalaccountsassavingsaccountPatientspayontheirownaftertheaccountbalanceiszeroAmajorityofpopulationdoesnothaveinsuranceTheypaybroadmarketdrugsbythemselves Insured Self pay Total City County Town Village 3 5 95 97 20 30 70 80 10 15 85 90 1 99 0 100 Source Interview focusgroup McK
9、inseyanalysis 7 PATIENTSGOTOPHARMACY CLINICSFORMINORSYMPTOMS Source Interview McKinseyanalysis Drivers IncreasedpricesensitivityChangedmedicalinsurancepolicyImprovedhighwayinfrastructureRichinformationaccessTVNewspaperIncreasedlifepaceNotimetovisithospitalPharmaceuticalmarketderegulationpolicyMorean
10、dmorepharmacies clinicsConvenientlylocated Severesymptoms Townhospital Minorsymptoms Largesthospitalsincityandcounty Middle smallhospitalsincityandcounty Pharmacy clinics Ruralpatients Citypatients 8 ALARGEPROPORTIONOFDRUGSALESCOMESFROMRETAILPHARMACIES PHARMACYCLERKSBECOMEINFLUENTIAL 40 ofthepatient
11、schangedtheirmindinpharmacySource Interview Focusgroup McKinseyanalysis Whatmakesyouchangeyourperceiveddrugs PharmacypatientsurveyPercent Shandongcitylevel Perceiveddrugnotavailable persuadedbypharmacyclerk Perceiveddrugavailablebutpersuadedbypharmacyclerk Changedmindbymyself WhenIgotothepharmacywit
12、houtadruginmind Ijustaskthepharmacyclerktorecommend ThenIwillcheckthedrug sintroductionsheet ifthisdrugcoversmydisease Iwillhaveatry Yibincitylevelfocusgroup TotaldrugsalesbreakdownPercent Pharmacy Hospital Clinics Overall Motilium GynoDaktarin Sibelium 9 CLINICSAREPLAYINGIMPORTANTROLEESPECIALLYATCO
13、UNTYANDTOWNANDBELOW Source Interview McKinseyanalysis Clinics shareintotaldrugsalesPercent Overall County Town Village 36 26 34 100 Sichuan Shandong City 8 27 8 27 100 3 10 G I CategoryReview 11 Morethanhalfofpatientsgoingtolargehospitalswillpurchasedrugatretailpharmacies Brandedgenericdrugsreferrin
14、gtogenericdrugsthatrunadvertising creatingbrandawarenessinconsumersSource Physicianandpharmacyinterviews McKinseyanalysis FORGIDISFUNCTIONDRUGSASAWHOLETHEREISSIGNIFICANTLATENTDEMAND PEOPLEGENERALLYSEEKTREATMENTINCLINICSANDPHARMACIES Latentmarketdemand60 oftotalpatientsdonotseekanytreatmentAsmarketle
15、ader increasingawarenessforMotiliumtofurtherboosttreatmentrateisoneofthekeydemandleversSmallclinicsandpharmaciesareimportantchannels75 ofpatientsseekingtreatmentgotoclinicsandpharmacies Totalincidence Donotseektreatment Gotolargehospital Gotosmallclinic Selfmedicateatpharmacy Seektreatment Notaware
16、Percent Motilium smarketshare Motiliumhasavastroomforgrowbecauseofsignificantleakagealongthepatientflow60 ofGIpatientsthatdoseektreatmentCurrentmarketshareof4 whichcouldbegrownfurtherAmongthe40 peoplewhoseekGItreatment about30 wouldbuybandedgenericdrugs whiletherestwouldbuynon brandgenericdrugs 1 6 12 FORGIDRUGS POLARIZATIONISBECOMINGMOREOBVIOUS Anecdotes Quantitativeexamples Sub TAsalesbychannelPercent Source Hospitalpharmacyinterviews retailpharmacyinterviews McKinseyanalysis 1997 1999 2