《精编》Deloitte2005年给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案

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1、 U S Energy TheRoleofRockyMountainNaturalGas CleanDomesticEnergyForaGrowingAmerica 2005 Thereisnoeconomy beitnew oldorevenfuturistic thatwouldexistwithoutreliable accessibleandaffordableenergy BasicEnergyFacts Thereisnoeconomy beitnew oldorevenfuturistic thatwouldexistwithoutreliable accessibleandaf

2、fordableenergy BasicEnergyFacts Overthepast25yearsU S demandforenergyhasincreasedby35 whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17 Thereisnoeconomy beitnew oldorevenfuturistic thatwouldexistwithoutreliable accessibleandaffordableenergy BasicEnergyFacts Weimport14 ofthegasand53 oftheoilweuse Overthepast25years

3、U S demandforenergyhasincreasedby35 whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17 PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic Source COGAFlowline Vol 17 3 BasicEnergyFacts 1 Takesenergyforgranted PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic Source COGAFlowline Vol 17 3 BasicEnergyFacts 1 Takesenergyforgranted 2 Neitherunde

4、rstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernations PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic Source COGAFlowline Vol 17 3 BasicEnergyFacts 1 Takesenergyforgranted 2 Neitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsume

5、rnations 3 Seemstobelievethemistakennotionthatenergyproductionnecessarilyentailsunacceptableenvironmentalimpact InColoradoabout2 000drillingpermitsareissuedannuallycomparedtoabout50 000housingpermits Source COGAFlowline Vol 17 3 BasicEnergyFacts OIL TotalU S EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource200

6、1 Source EIA Petroleum39 4 NaturalGas22 8 Coal23 1 Other 3 9 Hydro 2 5 Nuclear 8 4 WorldPetroleumDemand 25 9 76 0MMbod Source EIA Inthelast5yearstheworldconsumed27billionbarrels year buttheindustrydiscoveredonly3billionbarrels yearTherefore used135billionbarrelsofoilwhilediscovering15billionbarrelso

7、foil Source USGS BasicEnergyFacts WorldTopOilProducingCountriesin2001 U S 9 0MMbo dRussia8 8MMbo dSaudiArabia8 0MMbo dNorthSea UK Norway Denmark 6 3MMbo dIran3 7MMbo dMexico3 6MMbo dChina3 3MMbo dVenezuela2 9MMbo dCanada2 8MMbo dIraq2 4MMbo d Source EIA U S PetroleumProductsProductionvs U S Petroleu

8、mDemand Production 25 Demand 24 Source EIA U S CrudeOilProduction CrudeOilImports Source EIA 0 5 10 15 20 25 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2001 QuadrillionBtu OilProduction OilImports TopSuppliersofCrudeOiltoU S in2001 SaudiArabia1 611Mbo dMexico1 394Mbo dCanada1 356Mbo dVenezuel

9、a1 291Mbo dNigeria842Mbo dIraq795Mbo d Source EIA NATURALGAS TotalU S EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001 Source EIA Petroleum39 4 NaturalGas22 8 Coal23 1 Other 3 9 Hydro 2 5 Nuclear 8 4 U S NaturalGasConsumptionin200122 0Tcf Source Groppe Long Littell Residential22 Commercial15 Industrial26

10、ElectricUtilities26 ChemicalsandMaterials3 Other9 U S NaturalGasConsumptionvs DryProduction Source EIA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 Bcfd Consumption Production U S ShortfallinProductionvs Consumption Source EIA ProjectedNaturalGasDemand Source EIA Tcfperyear U S man

11、ufacturingisbasedonaffordableandreliablesuppliesofnaturalgas Attheseprices itisunlikelytheU S willattractnewmanufacturingcapital Today sgaspricesareforcingmanufacturerstoconsiderproductionoverseas Source IndustrialEnergyConsumersofAmerica ELECTRICITY U S highwayfuelmarkettotals11 12MMbopdmakingitthe

12、singlelargestpetroleummarketintheworldHowevertheenergycontentcreatingKilowattsintheU S isalmosttwiceaslargeasthehighwayfuelmarket Electricity BasicEnergyFacts BasicEnergyFacts In2001nearly42 oftheenergyconsumedintheU S wasusedtogenerateelectricity Source Groppe Long Littell U S ElectricitySupplybySo

13、urcein2001 Source EIA NaturalGas 16 5 Coal 51 5 OtherGaseousFuels 0 5 Geothermal Solar Wind 2 1 Petroleum 3 4 Hydro 5 8 Nuclear 20 3 FromendofWWIItostartof2000residentialandcommercialelectricaluseincreased51outof53yearsYetnosignificantnewpowerplantswerebuiltbetween1990and2000 BasicEnergyFacts In2000

14、 PC sandelectronicsconsumed13 ofournation senergysupply By2020 theseusesareexpectedtoconsume25 ofthenation senergysupply 40 ofthecountry selectricityisusedtopowerairconditioners U S ElectricityNetGeneration Source Groppe Long Littell 0 1 2 3 4 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 BillionKilowattHours

15、1 6 CAGR U S ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001 Source EIA NaturalGas 16 5 Nuclear 20 3 Coal 51 5 OtherGaseousFuels 0 5 Geothermal Solar Wind 2 1 Petroleum 3 4 Hydro 5 8 U S HydroelectricPowerProduction Source EIA Overthepast25yearsU S demandforenergyhasincreasedby35 whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17

16、BasicEnergyFacts BasicEnergyFacts Oil gasandhydroproductionareflattodown sowhathasincreasedenergysupply Overthepast25yearsU S demandforenergyhasincreasedby35 whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17 U S ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001 Source EIA NaturalGas 16 5 Coal 51 5 OtherGaseousFuels 0 5 Geothermal Solar Wind 2 1 Petroleum 3 4 Hydro 5 8 U S NuclearElectricPowerProduction 25 0 5 10 15 20 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 QuadrillionBtu ThreeMileIsland 2001 Source EIA U S Electricit

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