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1、ProjectPortfolioManagementAnIntroduction李俊伟 项目管理者联盟 MYPM NET 更多培训资料 尽在 2 Content EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement PPM PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM ProcessandTechniques 3 TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement 1952 ModernPortfolioTheory MPT HarryMarkowitz JournalofFinan
2、ce PortfolioSelection1990 HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981 F WarrenMcFarian PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems HBR toemployarisk basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects 1990s abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998
3、 JohnThorp TheInformationParadox Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions Present portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement 4 PortfolioManagement theoverallpicture Focus StrategicPlanning Source PMSolutions PortfolioManagement DianneBridges
4、 Select PortfolioManagement Manage ProjectManagement 5 Content EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement PPM PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM ProcessandTechniques 更多培训资料 尽在 6 TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolio Don tputallyoureggsinonebasket Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetraitinhumanb
5、eings 7 ReturnandRiskinFinancialMarket expectedreturn standarddeviation capitalappreciation growthofincome 061218243036 20181614121086420 income inflation T bills intermediate termgovernmentbonds long termgovernmentbonds long termcorporatebonds largecompanystocks smallcompanystocks stabilityofprinci
6、pal 8 TheRoleofCombiningSecurities Theexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns 更多培训资料 尽在 TheRoleofCombiningSecurities 10 Thetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents 10 TheRoleofCombiningSecurities expectedretur
7、n risk betterperformance Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk 11 TheEfficientFrontier OptimumDiversificati
8、onofRiskyAssets expectedreturn risk standarddeviationofreturns impossibleportfolios dominatedportfolios efficientfrontier TheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade offisdescribedastheefficientfrontier 12 TheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversification Asportfoliosizein
9、creases totalportfoliorisk onaverage declines Afteracertainpoint however themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest totalrisk Non diversifiablerisk numberofsecurities Naivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis 13 R
10、iskReductionwithDiversification 14 Marketorsystematicrisk riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk Systematic Unsystematic ComponentsofRisk 15 Two SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations 16 Relationshipdep
11、endsoncorrelationcoefficient 1 0 1 0Thesmallerthecorrelation thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf 1 0 noriskreductionispossible PortfolioRisk Return CorrelationEffects 17 StructuringaPortfolio AssetAllocation individualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresults 更多培训资料 尽在 18 Content EmergenceofProjectPort
12、folioManagement PPM PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM ProcessandTechniques 19 Whatisprojectportfoliomanagement PortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities assessingtheorganizationalfit analyzingthecosts benefits andrisks anddevelopingandselec
13、tingaportfolio Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis doingtherightthing selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold 20 PortfolioManagementis Defininggoalsandobjectives clearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding accelerating andmakingtradeoffs d
14、eterminehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying eliminating minimizing anddiversifyingrisk selectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMonitoringportfolioperformanc
15、e understandtheprogressthattheportfolioismakingtowardtheachievementofthegoalsandobjectivesAchievingadesiredobjective havetheconfidencethatthedesiredoutcomewilllikelybeachievedgiventheaggregateofinvestmentsthataremade 21 PortfolioManagementisNot Doingaseriesofproject specificcalculationsandanalyses s
16、uchasreturnoninvestment benefit costanalysis netpresentvalue paybackperiod rateofreturn andthenadjustingthemalltoaccountforrisk theseareprojectspecificCollectingafter the marketinformationonprojectstoproduceareportthattheorganizationhopeswillsatisfysomeorganizationalreportingrequirement 22 ThebenefitsofPortfolioManagement HavingastructureinplacetoselecttherightprojectsandimmediatelyremovethewrongprojectsPlacingresourceswhereitmatters reducingwastefulspendingLinkingportfoliodecisionstostrategicdi
