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1、MasterPlanningofResources Session2ForecastingDemand 2 2 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 MasterPlanningofResources Session1 TheBusinessPlanningProcessSession2 ForecastingDemandSession3 DemandManagementandCustomerServiceSession4 DistributionPlanningSession5 TheSalesandOperationsPlanning
2、ProcessSession6 TheMasterSchedulingProcessSession7 ManagingtheMasterSchedulingProcessSession8 MeasuringPerformanceandValidatingthePlan 2 3 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 Session2Objectives ExplainwhyforecastingisimportantIdentifyanddescribegeneralmethodsofforecastingIdentifydemandcha
3、racteristicsDescribeconsiderationsinusingdataforforecastsOutlinetheprocessofdatadecomposition 2 4 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 WhatIsaForecast Anestimateoffuturedemand Aforecastcanbedeterminedbymathematicalmeansusinghistoricaldata itcanbecreatedsubjectivelybyusingestimatesfrominfor
4、malsources oritcanrepresentacombinationofbothtechniques APICSDictionary 9thed 2 5 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 WhyForecast ToplanforthefuturebyreducinguncertaintyToanticipateandmanagechangeToincreasecommunicationandintegrationofplanningteamsToanticipateinventoryandcapacitydemandsan
5、dmanageleadtimesToprojectcostsofoperationsintobudgetingprocessesToimprovecompetitivenessandproductivitythroughdecreasedcostsandimproveddeliveryandresponsivenesstocustomerneeds 2 6 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 AreasImpactedbytheForecast InvestmentdecisionsCapitalequipmentdecisionsIn
6、ventoryplanningCapacityplanningOperationsbudgetsLead timemanagement 2 7 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 ForecastSystemDesignIssues DetermineinformationthatneedstobeforecastedAssignresponsibilityfortheforecastSetupforecastsystemparametersSelectforecastingmodelsandtechniquesCollectdataT
7、estmodelsRecordactualdemandReportaccuracyDeterminerootcauseofvarianceReviewforecastingsystemforimprovedperformance 2 8 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 GeneralForecastingTechniques Qualitative basedonintuitiveorjudgmentalevaluationQuantitative basedoncomputationalprojectionofanumericre
8、lationship 2 9 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 GeneralForecastingDataSources Intrinsic basedonhistoricalpatternsofthedataitselffromcompanydataExtrinsic basedonexternalpatternsfrominformationoutsidethecompany MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 Demand Aneedforaparticularprod
9、uctorcomponent 2 10 2 11 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 SourcesofDemand Demandcancomefrommanysources ConsumersCustomersReferrersDealersDistributorsInterplantServiceparts 2 12 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 DemandCharacteristics InternalFactorsProductpromotionProductsu
10、bstitution ExternalFactorsRandomfluctuationSeasonalityTrendEconomiccycleChangingcustomerpreferencesanddemands 2 13 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 Seasonality 2 14 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 SeasonalityCalculation MeasuresseasonalvariationofdemandRelatestheaveraged
11、emandinaparticularperiodtotheaveragedemandforallperiods 2 15 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 CalculationofSeasonalIndex SalesofIceCream 2 16 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 EconomicCycle 2 17 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 PyramidForecasting Product item
12、volume units Productfamilyvolume units dollars Totalbusinessvolume dollars RollUpForecast ForceDownAdjustment 2 18 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 Technique PyramidForecastingExample ROLL UP Product levelforecastX1units 8 200price 20 61 Family levelforecast Family adjustedforecastFORC
13、E DOWN X1 X2 15 00013 045 15 00013 045 4 845 5 571units 8 200 9 429units X2units 4 845price 10 00 units 13 045Familyavgprice 16 67 units 15 000 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 PyramidForecastingUsingRevenue 2 19 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 2 20 PyramidForecastingExe
14、rcise HistoricalDemandProductARegion1150Region2300SellingPrice 4 50Managementhasdeterminedthatnextyear sdemandwillbe 10 000total CALCULATEtheprojecteddemandinunitsforproductsAandBineachregion ProductBRegion1300Region2450SellingPrice 8 50 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 2 21 PyramidFor
15、ecastingExercise Solution BaseduponhistoricaldemandA 150 300 450 4 50 2 025B 300 450 750 8 50 6 375Total 8 400 A Region1 1 19 150 178 5Region2 1 19 300 357 0B Region1 1 19 300 357 0Region2 1 19 450 535 5178 5 357 0 536 5 4 50 2 414 25357 0 535 5 892 5 8 50 7 586 25 10 000 50 1 19 19 increase 10 000
16、8 400 2 22 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 QuantitativeTechniques MovingaverageExponentialsmoothingRegressionanalysisAdaptivesmoothingGraphicalmethodsEconometricmodelingLife cyclemodeling MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 December2001 MovingAverageForecasting AdvantagesAsimpletechniquethatiseasytocalculateItcanbeusedtofilteroutrandomvariationLongerperiodsprovidemoresmoothingLimitationsIfatrendexists itishardtodetectMovingaverageslagtrends 2 23 MasterPlanningofResources ver 2 0 Dec
