《《精编》高级投资项目管理的经济效益评价》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《《精编》高级投资项目管理的经济效益评价（75页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、厦门大学管理学院博士研究生课程报告八 高级投资项目管理和经济效益评价 理论 方法和实践厦门大学管理学院吴世农AdvancedCapitalBudgeting Theory Methods ApplicationsWuShinongSchoolofManagementXiamenUniversity AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting I WhatisCapitalBudgeting Capital FixedAssetsusedinproduction service Budgeting Plandetailingprojectedcashinflowsandou
2、tflowsduringsomefutureperiod thus CapitalBudgeting outlinestheplannedexpendituresonfixedassets 1 Multi conceptsforCapitalBudgeting 1 CapitalInvestmentAnalysis Decision 2 EconomicEvaluationofInvestmentProjects 3 TechnologicalEconomics 4 InvestmentFeasibilityStudy2 AFormalDefinitionofCapitalBudgetingC
3、apitalbudgetingisafiledoffinanceconcernedwithcostandbenefit andreturnandriskderivedfrominvestmentprojectundertakenbyafirm Thecapitalbudgetingisaprocedureincludeasetofsystematictechniquesdealingwithhowtoevaluateandselectinvestmentprojectsundercertaintyoruncertainty 厦门大学管理学院吴世农 MarketResearchInvestmen
4、tSources CostCBAExpendituresofCapitalsMarketingStrategyCosts IncomeRProfitsStatementRisk InvestmentAnalysisDManagementAssets BalanceLiabilitiesSheetProductionFinanceCashInflow CashflowRepaymentOpportunityStudyCashOutflowStatementAnalysisPreliminaryDiscussionFeasibilityDiscussionFinalProposalsStudyRe
5、portExhibit1 DiagramSuggestedforInvestmentProject sFeasibilityStudyinFirms 厦门大学管理学院吴世农 TechnologicalMacroeconomicFeasibilityFeasibilityFinancialImplementationOperationFeasibilitySocial CulturalEnvironmentalFeasibilityFeasibilityComprehensiveReviewPost FeasibilityReportAssessmentExhibit1 Continuos Di
6、agramSuggestedforInvestmentProject sFeasibilityStudyinFirms AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting II ConflictsbetweenNPVandIRRforMutuallyExclusiveProjects1 SizeEffectofInvestmentOutlayonNPVandIRR 1 Conflict WhichMaximizesShareholder sWealth Supposethattherearetwoprojects AandB n 1 K 10 theirinvestmentout
7、laysandNCFarepresentedinthefollowingtable ProjectI0NCF1NPV k 10 IRRPVIA5 0008 0002 27360 45 46 B50 00075 00018 18250 36 36 BothprojectsareacceptableduetotheirpositivevaluesofNPV however giventhatthetwoprojectsaremutuallyexclusive whichoneispreferred Also becausethesizeofinvestmentoutlaysforAandBared
8、ifferent ByNPV AisbetterthanB byIRR orPVI BisoverA ThiscaseistypicalasaconflictraisedfromdecisioncriteriabyNPVorbyIRR 厦门大学吴世农 2 SolutionSinceK 10 isassumedtobefixed wecansolvethisconflictbycreatingadifferentialproject B A ifthedifferentialprojectyieldsapositiveNPV itisobviousthatBisbetterthanAbecaus
9、enotonlyapartofBwillcreateaNPVequaltoNPVA butalsocreateapositiveNPVforthedifferentialproject B A Thus wecreateadifferentialproject B A andthencalculateitsNPVandIRRNPV B A 75000 8000 1 10 50000 5000 15909 75000 8000 1 IRR B A 50000 5000 IRR B A 48 8 Nodoubt theresultsabovesuggeststhattheinvestorsofth
10、efirmwillbebetteroffifprojectBisaccepted AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting 2 TrendEffectofNCFonNPVandIRR 1 Conflict WhichOneisaSoundingDecisionRule Supposetherearetwomutuallyexclusiveprojects AandB thefollowinggraphsshowthatthetrendofA sNCFsandthetrendofB sNCFsaredifferent Obviously graph1statesthatA
11、 sNCFsarealwayslargerthanB sNCFsovertheperiods thus NPVA NPVB graph2statesfortheearlierperiodsA sNCFsarelargerthanB sNCFs thusNPVA NPVB butforthelaterperiods afterK A sNCFsaresmallerthanB sNCFs thusNPVANPVBBANPVA NPVBNPVA NPVBKNPVA NPVBKkIRRB IRRAk IRRA IRRB 厦门大学吴世农 Forgraph1 projectAwillbechosenfor
12、investmentwhileprojectbewillbegivenup Thedecisionisclear Forgraph2 itishardtosaywhichoneisbetter Thequestioncannotbeanswereduntilwedoafurtherstudy 2 SolutionToillustratethecaseshowningraph2 thefollowingtablecontainsnecessaryinformationformakingtheaccept rejectdecision ProjectI0NCF1NCF2NPV K 10 IRRNP
13、V K 20 A10001000310165 324 8 48 6B10002001200173 620 0Toanswerthequestionforthecaseofgraph2 wehastocreateadifferentialproject B A weregardthedifferenceofB sNCFandA NCFinthefirstyear NCF1B NCF1A asI1 whichisanegativevalue orcashoutflow AlsowetreatedthedifferenceofB sNCFandA NCFinthesecondyear NCF2B N
14、CF1A asNCF1 whichisapositivevalue orcashinflow Thusthedifferentialproject sNPVandIRRcanbeshownasfollows AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting NPV B A 890 1 10 800 9 1 890 1 IRR B A 800 IRR B A 11 23 Bythecalculationsabove itsuggeststhatprojectBisbetterthanprojectA 3 SignEffectofNCFsonNPVandIRR 1 Conflict
15、 WhichOneisApplicable Weonediscussedaclassificationofcashflows conventionalNCFandnon conventionalNCF therationalbehindthisclassificationistoidentifyapplicabilityofcapitalbudgetingtechniques particularlyforNPVandIRR Ifaproject sstreamofestimatedNCFschangessignmorethanonce thestreamofNCFsisnon convent
16、ional Inthiscase IRRisnotapplicablebecauseitcanresultinmultipleratesofreturn Why AsimpleanswertothisquestionisthatifthestreamofNCFschangessignmorethanonetime mathematically solvingtheequationofIRRwillresultsinmorethanonesolutions MultipleRatesofReturns 厦门大学吴世农 Geometrically themultipleratesofreturncanbeshowninthefollowinggraph NPV0KSomeStudiesshowthatcashflowsofinvestmentprojectswerehighlyassociatedwitheconomicenvironment marketcompetition managementabilityandmanyothers Inpractice itiscommonthat
