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1、 MatthewBGM NewMedia M GOnline futurewebtrendsinnovationseries2007withjimmywales IMGSRC Flickr thethingaboutpredictions IMGSRC Flickr Computersinthefuturemayweighnomorethan1 5tons PopularMechanics forecastingtherelentlessmarchofscience 1949 Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybefivecomputers ThomasWatson
2、 chairmanofIBM 1943 640Koughttobeenoughforanybody BillGates 1981apocryphal Thereisnoreasonanyonewouldwantacomputerintheirhome KenOlson president chairmanandfounderofDigitalEquipmentCorp 1977 internetconnectivity Dirtcheap lighteningfast alwayson internetComputerslight dumbterminals neednetconnection
3、toworkMostapplicationsweb basedforbestefficiency IMGSRC Flickr alldigitaldeviceswillbeconnected networked Fromyourcar radio phone fridge alwayson AnunconnecteddigitaldevicewillbeastrangethingWiMaxconnectedsunglasseswithvoicepromptedHUD riseofthemobileinternet Rapidimprovementsinconnectivity screensM
4、obiletobedominantplatformforconnectingtonetworldwideJapan happenedalready mostlysurfwebthroughphones Voicecallspoweredbyinternet SMS Texts IMCellphoneselectronicwallets banks mainmethodofpaymentCitizensvoteforfirsttimeinelectionsviamobilephones riseofindividual entrepreneur Opensource unprecedenteda
5、ccesstocode applicationsCheaptocreatebusinessonline makeownmediaTeenagerinbasementsameopp asworkerinbigcompanyEXAMPLE Newmobileoperatingsystem Android stridesagainstdigitaldivide DevelopingworldjoinsdigitalecosystemviamobilephonesAlsobecomepartofeconomyviacellphonewalletMobilephonescheap broadbandub
6、iquitousIlliteracyissuesovercomebyvideo audiostreamsCreatesnewareasofcollaborationandeducation almostnoprivacyontheweb YourdatawillbeoutthereItwillbeokbecauseeveryonewillbeinthesameboatSworkingserviceslikeFB theriseofthevirtualuniverse VirtualworldslikeSecondlifegomainstreamCometoforeasgraphiccards
7、broadbandimprovePotentiallyavisualalternativetotheworldwidewebStandards differentworldsconnecttoeachotherseamlesslyVirtualcoupd etatbySLcitizens LindenLabscedesSLtodemocraticallyelectedvirtualgovt informationpollution overload NextbigchallengeishowtomanagemassesofinformationPeoplewillcomplainabout d
8、igitalfatigue digitalnoiseFocusondevelopingfilters aggregators Switch off holidaysregularlyprescribedbyyourdoctorRiseofanti digitalmovementsurging getbacktobasics Inresponsetoclutter asecondworldwidewebannounced moregoogles facebooks Google FacebookfinallygetgoodcompetitionMicrosoftreleasesOScodeand
9、goesopensourceMSmakesrevenuebysellingadvertising givingsupportAdvertisingismainbus model connectingsellers buyers FacebookbecomesavirtualOS desktop withMSinfluence declineofthenationstate Govthaslessinfluence controlthaneverbeforeTechnologiesthreatenexistingpower economicrelationshipsAlso musicindus
10、tryhasresisteddigitalaudioandNapsterButoppressiveregimesclampdownoninternetSomecountriesregressintodarkages andmedia mediadistribution production AllmediaeventuallydeliveredviainternetHardlyanyspecialistprint tv radiomediacompaniesleftAllfullyconverged broadcasting publishingviathenetMediaonmanydigi
11、talplatforms MEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIA fragmentedmediaenvironment Non mediaplayersbecomedefactomediacompaniesMediaworldfilledwithnewcompetitorsCellphoneoperators handsetmakers mediacompaniesVodacomstopaggregating startproducingowncontentOperatorsalreadybigmedi
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13、gedmediachallengemediaconglomerates MEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIA roleofmediachanges Alsocontentaggregators facilitatorsBusinessmodel captureaudienceviaallmeansMediacompanieslooktoownchannels dealsforownphones Contentportals webapplications servicesSocialnetworksa
14、swellascontenthubs MEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIA isthistheendofprint Books newspapersmagazines Readonflexibledigitalboards alwaysconnectedWebsites digitalnewspapersbecome samething Newspaperssmaller niched butnotextinctNewspapersbecomeexpensive luxuryitemsAlifesty
15、leitem buyingan experience partof offtime MEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIAMEDIA IMGSRC WANN otherdevelopments othertrendsfornow thefuture SemanticwebentrenchedArtificialintelligenceAttentioneconomyinfullswingSophisticatedpersonalisationofcontentLocation based mappingservi
16、cescommon SRC ReadWrite Web JaxonRice Myblog Forgetcapitalismandtheclassstruggle thedigitalrevolutionischangingthingsfarmoredramaticallythanthehypemongerseverimagined themovefromasocietydominatedbyprintandbroadcastmassmediatotheageofinteractivityisatleastasdramaticasthemovefromfeudalismtocapitalism Netocracy byJanS derqvistandAlexanderBard 2001 IMGSRC Flickr Drivenbyinternetandmobilecommunications networksareturningintothemajormeansofdoingbusiness Simplyput networkswillmaketheworldgoround Socont
