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1、Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 1 CHAPTER2 MeasuringtheMacroeconomy Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 2 Questions Whatkeydatadomacroeconomistslookat Howarekeymacroeconomicdataestimatedandcalculated Whatisthedifferencebetween nominal and r
2、eal values Howarestockmarketvaluesrelatedtointerestrates Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 3 Questions Howareinterestratesrelatedtothepricelevelandtheinflationrate Howisunemploymentrelatedtototalproduction Whatisright andwhatiswrong withthekeymeasureofeconomicactivity r
3、ealGDP Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 4 TheImportanceofData EconomistsusequantitativedatatoexamineandunderstandbehaviorpricesquantitiesvaluesDatacanbeusedintwowaysmakequantitativeforecaststesteconomictheories Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreser
4、ved 2 5 MostImportantMacroeconomicData realGDPtheunemploymentratetheinflationratetheinterestratethelevelofthestockmarkettheexchangerate Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 6 Table2 1 TheSixKeyEconomicVariables Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved
5、2 7 TheExchangeRate ThenominalexchangerateistherelativepriceoftwodifferentcurrenciesdeterminedintheforeignexchangemarketExample 1 00equals 1 20 1 00equals 0 83 Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 8 TheExchangeRate Domesticexportersearnforeigncurrencywhentheyexportproducts
6、needtotradetheforeigncurrencyfordollarsForeignproducersearndollarswhenU S residentsimporttheirproductsneedtotradethedollarsforforeigncurrency Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 9 Figure2 1 TheMarketforForeignExchange Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsr
7、eserved 2 10 TheExchangeRate Therealexchangerateisthenominalexchangerateadjustedforchangesinthevalueofthecurrencydependsonthenominalexchangerateandthepricelevel Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 11 TheExchangeRate Example1nominalexchangeratechangesfrom 1 20 1 00to 2 40
8、1 00priceleveldoublesrealexchangerateisunchangedExample2nominalexchangerateremainsatthesamelevel 1 20 1 00 priceleveldoublesrealexchangeratefallsbyhalf Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 12 TheExchangeRate Example3nominalexchangerateincreasesfrom 1 20 1 00to 2 30 1 00pri
9、celevelremainsthesamerealexchangeratedoubles Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 13 TheExchangeRate Tocalculatetherealexchangerate youneedthreepiecesofinformationpricelevelinthehomecountry P pricelevelabroad P nominalexchangerate e Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies
10、Inc Allrightsreserved 2 14 TheExchangeRate TherearemanydifferentcurrenciesintheworldmanydifferentexchangeratesEconomistsconstructanexchangerateindextorepresent the exchangerateeachcountryreceivesaweightequaltoitsshareoftotalU S trade Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 15
11、 TheExchangeRate Theexchangerateindexisbyaveragingeachcountry scurrentexchangeraterelativetoitsexchangerateinthebaseyear 1992 Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 16 Figure2 2 TheExchangeRateIndex 1992 1998 Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 17
12、 TheStockMarket ThemostrepresentativeindexoftheU S stockmarketistheStandardandPoor sCompositeIndex S P500 ThemostcommonlydiscussedindexoftheU S stockmarketistheDow JonesIndustrialAverage Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 18 TheStockMarket Stockmarketaveragesareinnominal
13、termsmustdividebysomemeasureofthepriceleveltogettherealvalueofthestockmarketTherealvalueofthestockmarketisasensitiveindicatoroftherelativeoptimismorpessimismofinvestorscanforecastfutureinvestmentspending Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 19 TheStockMarket Investorsfacea
14、choicebetweenholdingstocksandholdingbondsstocksaresharesofownershipofacorporationentitlesyoutoaportionofthecompany sprofitsbondsaredebtsthatthecorporationowesyoupaysperiodicinterestpaymentsandreturnsprincipaltoyouatmaturity Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 20 TheStockM
15、arket Ratesofreturnforbonds therateofreturnistheinterestrate r forstocks therateofreturnistheratioofearningspershare Es tothepricepaid Ps Stocksareriskyinvestorsmayrequireariskpremium s Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 21 TheStockMarket Investorswillholdonlystocksif In
16、vestorswillholdonlybondsif Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 22 TheStockMarket Investorswillholdbothstocksandbondsif Thismeansthatthevalueofastockisequalto Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies Inc Allrightsreserved 2 23 TheStockMarket HowcanwemeasureEs newspaperreportswhatthefirm saccountantshavecalculated Ea investorsareinterestedinsomelong runaverageofexpectedfutureearnings Es needanestimateoftherelationshipbetweenEaandEs Copyright 2002byTheMcGraw HillCompanies
