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1、The Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2016 July 2012 Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics The Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2016 Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics Key 2012 2016 Numbers Key 2016 Numbers Developed Country Spending Per Person 609 P
2、harmerging Country Spending Per Person 91 Global Spending Growth CAGR 3 6 U S Spending Growth CAGR 1 4 Pharmerging Spending Growth CAGR 12 15 Patent Dividend 106Bn Spending on Brands 615 645Bn New Molecular Entity Launches 160 185 Spending on Generics 400 430Bn Spending 1 2 Trillion IMS Institute fo
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5、r be on our mailing list please click here 1 The Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2016 Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics Contents Introduction 2 Executive Summary 3 Global Spending on Medicines 4 Transformations in Disease Treatment 11 Global Spending Growth 17 Notes on S
6、ources 29 Appendices 30 About the IMS Institute 33 The future level of global spending on medicines underscores the similar challenges of access and affordability which face those who consume and pay for healthcare around the world In the developed markets including the United States and Europe the
7、current economic downturn will amplify many of the long term concerns about aging populations afflicted with expensive chronic diseases and the desire by all healthcare stakeholders to control costs Across countries similar policies are already being implemented to rein in spending on expensive ther
8、apies increase the use of generics address pricing directly through price cuts or indirectly via discounts or rebates and develop a market for biosimilars as a lower cost alternative to original biologics Alternatively the fast growing pharmerging markets will be driven predominantly by economic gai
9、ns and rising incomes This rise in incomes particularly for the lowest earners coupled with government commitments to support expanded access to basic healthcare services will make medicines more broadly available and affordable to millions of people Further new therapies for a range of diseases aff
10、ecting both developed and developing world populations are currently or will soon become available transforming patient care Despite this progress however significant gaps remain in the drug arsenal In this report we quantify these factors and examine the spending and usage of medicines globally thr
11、ough 2016 We intend this report to provide a foundation for meaningful discussion about the value cost and role of medicines in healthcare over the next five years Our report was developed as a public service without industry or government funding Michael Kleinrock Director Research Development IMS
12、Institute for Healthcare Informatics Introduction 2 The Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2016 Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics Executive summary GLOBAL SPENDING ON MEDICINES Annual global spending on medicines will reach nearly 1 2 trillion by 2016 as the pharmerging mar
13、kets biologics and generics contribute more to spending In the developed markets including the United States Europe and Japan spending will decline to 57 of the global total due to expiring patents for a number of significant brand name drugs slower increases in spending on branded products and incr
14、eased cost containment measures by payers Alternatively pharmerging markets will reach 30 of global spending by 2016 as population and economic growth contribute to dramatically higher use of medicines in these markets Overall the top 20 therapy areas will account for 42 of global spending led by ca
15、ncer diabetes and asthma COPD An accelerated shift to the use of generic medicines is expected both from an unprecedented level of patent expiries in the U S and from volume driven growth in the largely generic using pharmerging markets At the same time lower cost versions of expensive biologic medi
16、cines or biosimilars will continue to be launched though slowly and will account for only 4 6Bn or 2 of the 200 210Bn in spending on biologics by 2016 By 2016 net spending on medicines after off invoice discounts and rebates will surpass 1 trillion globally Off invoice transactions will continue to rise particularly for generics representing in aggregate an estimated 180 190Bn in 2016 TRANSFORMATIONS IN DISEASE TREATMENTS New medicines will transform patient care in a large number of diseases in
