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1、1 Summer School on quantitative remote sensing Beijing University June 29 2008 Part 1 Introduction Shunlin Liang Professor Department of Geography University of Maryland at College Park USA Sliang geog umd edu http www glue umd edu sliang What is Global Change Atmospheric composition Nitrogen fixati
2、on Biodiversity Ultraviolet radiation Temperature Land use Population Urbanisation 1 Global scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System 2 Much more than climate change 3 Natural as well as anthropogenic changes 4 Socio economic as well as biophysical For example changes in Carbon D
3、ioxide and Temperature 2 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004 Source Jerry Meehl National Center for Atmospheric Research Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 Report 3 Top 20 World CO2E Emitting Countries from Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels 1998 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 60
4、00 United States China Russia Japan India Germany United Kingdom Canada Italy Korea South France South Africa Ukraine Mexico Brazil Australia Iran Poland Spain Indonesia Megatonnes CO2E Source Energy Information Administration Understanding the Challenge International Context 2 of Global GHG Emissio
5、ns Associated Climate Changes Global sea level has increased 1 2 mm yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially decreased in extent by 10 15 Reduced permafrost in polar sub polar mountainous regions Growing season lengthened
6、by 1 4 days in N Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10 Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 Report NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
7、 concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003 Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3 decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent Since 1979 the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent Illustration from NASA http www nrdc org globalWarming qthinice asp Source
8、 Corell R W 2004 Impacts of a warming Arctic Arctic Climate Impact Assessment www acia uaf edu Cambridge University Press www cambridge org 4 Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m 3 ft rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1 m rise in sea level on low lying areas Source Corell
9、R W 2004 Impacts of a warming Arctic Arctic Climate Impact Assessment www acia uaf edu Cambridge University Press www cambridge org Costs of Extreme Weather EventsCosts of Extreme Weather Events UNEP PROJECTIONS 150 BILLION annual losses from extreme weather events with CURRENT TRENDS THE CONTEXTTHE
10、 CONTEXT到底是什么天气 让中国气象损失达两万亿 现在 每当大风降温 暴雪 台风 高温等重大灾害性天气来临时 公众都可以迅速从电视 广播 互联网 手机短信和位于城市显著位置的电子显示牌中得到灾 害天气预警信息 谈到气 象应急体系建设 中国气象局局长秦大河委员说 这些符号或颜色能让更多的人免受突发灾害性 天气的袭击 这也是建设 城市气象灾害 警示系统 的重要内容之一 统计显示 从1993年到2003年的十年间 气象灾害给我国国民经济带来的直接经济损失达 21146亿元 气象灾害虽然是一种不可抗拒的力量 但事先 防与不防有天壤之别 当不可抗拒的 灾害发生时 直面重大灾害 气象预报 一字千金
11、一次哪怕提前半小时的准确预报可能避免巨 大人身及财产损失 为抗灾防 灾抢得先机 去年 从台风 云娜 登陆的准确预报到京 沪等地的 雷击 雷雨大风天气 气象部门均提前发布了各种气象灾害预警 大幅降低了经济损失和人员伤 亡 气象部门已经把 安全气象 作为气象发展战略之一 其核心内容是为军事 生态 能源 粮食 水资源 人民生命财产安全等提供全方位的气象预警服务 秦大河说 建立气象应急体系 防 御重大气象灾害 这是构建社会主义和谐社会的基本保障 本文摘自文学城 本 文摘自 文学城 记者了解到 目前我国建成了由地面观测 地面遥感到高空遥感的立体气象观测体系 分布 于全国所有县以上城市的4600多个气象站
12、 极大地提高了地面气象 要素监测的时空密度 124个 高空探测站点对地面至30公里高空大气的各种气象要素进行探测 74部先进的多普勒雷达能够同 时对200公里半径范围内的降 水量分布和区域降水量进行较准确的估测 在防汛抗洪及城市积涝 防御中发挥重大作用 秦大河介绍说 作为国家对突发事件管理的重要组成部分 我国将重点从四个方面加快气象 应急体系建设 一是建立并完善中国气候观测系统 开展对气候系统即 大气 海洋 冰雪 陆面 生物五大圈层的观测 提高天气气候预报预测准确性和精确度 二是提高重大灾害性天气和短 期气候预测准确率 着力建立天气气候预报 预测的 无缝隙 预报系统 实现我国区域中期数值天 气
13、预报可用时效达到8天水平 三是增强气象灾害监测预警能力 加快对强对流天气跟踪监测和 快速反应能 力 建立定点 定时 定量的灾害性天气临近预报业务 四是加强人工影响天气等防 灾减灾能力建设 即开展人工增雨 消雾 消云 消雹等作业 进一步提高我国 人工影响天气水 平 5 Global warming is at least as important an issue as gay marriage or the rising cost of Social Security And if it is not seriously debated in the general election it w
14、ill measure the irresponsibility of the entire political class This is an issue that cannot and must not be ignored any longer Walter Cronkite 12 March 2004 Global Environmental Change and Human Impacts The Causal Chain Impacts on human societies wellbeing and health Climate change Strat ozone deple
15、tion Degraded food producing ecosystems Freshwater depletion Biodiversity loss Gaseous emissions Pressures on natural resources Material wastes Population size Economic intensity GHG ODG Resource Management Models Outcomes New Understanding Public Debate Policy Decisions Management Decisions Educati
16、onal Resources Scenario Comparison and Evaluation Observations Reports and Findings Research Atmosphere Climate Water cycle Land use cover Carbon cycle Ecosystems Human Dimensions Climate and Earth Science Questions OutputsInputs CCSP Science for Society and Decision Support Decision Support Resources National Sectoral and Regional Issues Earth System Science Atmospheric Physics Dynamics Tropospheric Chemistry Global Moisture Ocean Dynamics Marine Biogeochemistry Terrestrial Ecosystems Terrestri
