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1、1 Chapter5ConditionalConvergenceandLong RunEconomicGrowth 2 ConditionalConvergenceinPractice 3 ConditionalConvergenceinPractice Threevariablesthatinfluencedk Savingrate s Technologylevel A Populationgrowthrate n 4 ConditionalConvergenceinPractice Abroaderviewofthetechnologylevel A Productivitydepend
2、sonthedegreeofmarketefficiency Greaterinternationalopennesstendstoraiseproductivity Productivitytendstoriseifgovernmentsdobetteratmaintainingprivatepropertyrights ifthejudicialsystemrunsmoresmoothly andifofficialcorruptiondeclines 5 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth k k k 0 k Theideais
3、tomeasureanarrayofvariables eachofwhichinfluencesacountry ssteady statecapitalperworker k 6 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth First ifweholdfixedk byholdingfixedthevariablesthatinfluencek thegrowthrateofcapitalperworker k k shouldexhibitconvergence Thatis forgivenk alowerk 0 shouldmatc
4、hupwithahigher k k Second anyvariablethatraisesorlowersk shouldcorrespondinglyraiseorlower k kforgivenk 0 7 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth 8 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth Holdconstantalistofvariablesthatinfluencek ameasureofthesavingrate thefertilityrateforthetypic
5、alwoman whichinfluencespopulationgrowth subjectivemeasuresofmaintenanceoftheruleoflawanddemocracy thesizeofgovernment asgaugedbytheshareofgovernmentconsumptionexpendituresinGDP 9 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth theextentofinternationalopenness measuredbythevolumeofexportsandimports c
6、hangesinthetermsoftrade whichistheratioofpricesofexportedgoodstopricesofimportedgoods measuresofinvestmentineducationandhealth theaveragerateofinflation whichisanindicatorofmacroeconomicpolicy 10 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth GrowthrateofrealGDPperpersonrisesinresponsetoahighersavi
7、ngrate lowerfertility bettermaintenanceoftheruleoflaw smallergovernmentconsumption greaterinternationalopenness improvementinthetermsoftrade greaterquantityandqualityofeducation betterhealth andlowerinflation 11 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth Democracyhasalesscleareffect ifacountrys
8、tartsfromatotalitariansystem increasesindemocracyseemtofavoreconomicgrowth However afteracountryreachesamid rangeofdemocracy characteristicinrecentyearsofIndonesia Turkey andseveralplacesinLatinAmerica furtherdemocratizationseemstoreducegrowth 12 RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth Numer
9、ousadditionalvariablesthatinfluencegrowth scopeoffinancialmarkets thedegreeofincomeinequality theextentofofficialcorruption theroleofcolonialandlegalorigins Theintensityofreligiousparticipationandbeliefs 13 ExamplesofConditionalConvergence By1946 Japan Germany France andothercountriesinEuropesuffere
10、dsharpreductionsinphysicalcapital whichresultedinalowstartingvalueofcapitalperworker k 0 Inthe1960s manyEastAsiancountries suchasSouthKoreaandTaiwan werepoorand therefore hadlowvaluesofk 0 14 Long RunEconomicGrowth SolowmodeldoesnotexplainhowcapitalandrealGDPperworker kandy growinthelongrun Themodel
11、doesnotexplainhowrealGDPperpersongrewataround2 peryearforwelloveracenturyintheUnitedStatesandotherrichcountries 15 Long RunEconomicGrowth Weallowfortechnologicalprogressinthesenseofcontinuinggrowthofthetechnologylevel A Agrowsinanexogenousmanner 16 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital Thedimini
12、shingaverageproductofcapital y k playsamajorroleinthetransitionphaseoftheSolowgrowthmodel k k s y k n 17 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital Interpretcapitalbroadly especiallytoincludehumancapitalintheformsofformaleducation on the jobtraining andhealth Includeformsofcapitalthatareoftenownedbyg
13、overnment suchasinfrastructurecapitalusedfortransportationandutilities 18 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital Ifwedoublenotonlymachinesandbuildingsbutalsohumanandinfrastructurecapital realGDPmayroughlydouble Ifrawlaborisnotacriticalinputtoproduction capital smarginalandaverageproductsmaynotdec
14、lineascapitalaccumulates 19 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital 20 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital y k A k k sA n 21 ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital 22 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress AllowforcontinuingincreasesinA Thisregularprocessofimprovementsinthetechnologyiscalledtechn
15、ologicalprogress A A g 23 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 24 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 25 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 26 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 27 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress Sincetheaverageproductofcapital y k isconstantduringsteady stategrowth thenumeratoroftheratio y mustgrowatt
16、hesamerateasthedenominator k y y k k 28 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 29 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 30 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 31 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress Exogenoustechnologicalprogressattherate A A gallowsforlong termgrowthinrealGDPandcapitalperworkerattherateg 1 Thetechnologicalprogressoffsetsthetendencyfortheaverageproductofcapital y k tofallwhenkrisesand thereby allowsforlong termgrowthinrealGDPandcapitalperworker 32 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress GrowthrateofrealGDPperpers
