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1、Will Chinese Stock Markets Mirror the Behaviour of the NASDAQ Where is the solution Christopher Poll Chairman Greater China Consultancy Ltd 3 QUESTIONS RAISED HOW TO DEFINE A WELL REGULATED MARKET WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE EARNINGS RATIO IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MAR
2、KET WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE HOW TO DEFINE A WELL REGULATED MARKET The Financial Markets are Dynamic Business is Proactive But Regulators are Reactive not Proactive The System of Regulation and Enforcement can never be completely Flexible and Dynamic Importance of Fiduciary Responsibili
3、ty Financial Infrastructure MAIN FACTORS FOR FUNDS Government Financial Policemen Institutional Managers Centred around Public Investors PRIVATE SECTOR LawyersAccountants Investment Bankers Stock Brokers Commercial Banks Conflict of Interest Conflict of Interest Who is the client Who are the Financi
4、al Policeman Responsible to Can Regulation be Protect with Financial Policemen being Proactive INVESTORS InstitutionalPrivate PensionsInsuranceMutual Funds Investors Confidence Investors Education Confidence Education I n v e s t o r s Investor Protection Confidence Easier and more effective enforce
5、ment Increased efficiency reduces costs Improved flexibility of the infrastructure to respond effectively and competitively Efficient Infrastructure Transparency Accountability Leads to A Chinese Tailor Made Solution for the Chinese Fund Industry Investors behaviour Stock Investors Fund Investors Se
6、curities Dealers Brokers Securities Investment Advisors Fund Managers Securities Exchange OTC Futures Exchange SEC CSRC CBC PBC WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE EARNINGS RATIO Chinese Quoted Stocks Corporate Profits NASDAQ Corporate Profits Confidence 1995 2000 C IF CONFIDENCE IS LOW THEN MONEY FLOW IS MINUTE
7、 CONFIDENCE IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEN MONEY FLOW IS LARGE What is the Criteria For Investing 1 What do you think is the most important influence on the stock market in China today The historic balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of the quoted companies 6 The future prospects for corporate e
8、arnings 10 Government policy 62 Govt investigation into mal practices15 The overall economic growth of the Chinese economy 27 China s entry into the WTO 8 2 How do you as an investor analyse the fair value of the companies you buy sell By price earnings ratio 35 By relationship to net asset vale 5 B
9、y the latest rumour 58 By the business sector the company is involved in 21 By multiple of sales revenue 9 3 What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio for non technology stocks under 15 times 0 15 to 25 times 18 above 25 110 4 What do you think should be the average pr
10、ospective price earnings ratio under 15 times 0 15 to 25 times 1 25 to 50 16 over 50 111 5 How do you measure investment risk By measuring the volatility of the stock 31 By measuring the volatility of the stock market 42 By estimating the accuracy of disclosed information 16 By estimating the risk o
11、f fraud 17 By analysing historic returns 13 By comparing with and adjusting for a risk free measure such as a deposit rate 8 At what level do you think the Shanghai A share market will be on 31st December 2001 most think it will be above 2500 Today it is 2140 At what level do you think the Shanghai
12、B share market will be on 31st December 2001 most think it will be above 200 Today it is 183 IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE Factors Effecting Investment Time Horizons Confidence in Long Term Trends Confidence in Information
13、Disclosure Volatility of Markets Liquidity of Markets Profit Forecast Public Scrutiny of Performance EACM 100 Equal Weighted Rebalanced Annually Index of Hedge Fund Indices described on Previous Slide China versus Western Markets Limited sense of Accountability Little Understanding of Risk Chinese B
14、usiness Philosophy Reluctance to Incentivise Executive Managers Entrepreneurs Understand Cause Consequence Risk is Fully Understood Shareholder Accountability is accepted Share Options and Profit Incentives FUND COMPANY REGULATOR POLICEMEN FUND CUSTODIAN BENEFICIARY CERTIFICATE INVESTORS ASSETS MONEY Basic Concept of Funds as an Investment Vehicle
