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1、Documentnumber 1 Content ExecutiveSummaryIntroductiontovaluationDiscountcashflow DCF B1 CashflowB2 DiscountrateandWACCB3 TerminalvalueB4 CommonDCFQ AComparableC1 ComparablemethodologyC2 ListedpeercomparableC3 TransactioncomparableRealOptionOthervaluationtopicsF1 InvestmentprocessandmanagementF2 Data
2、gatheringF3 DefinearelevantvaluationrangeF4 SensitivityanalysisF5 IndustryspecificvaluationinsightAppendix Documentnumber 2 Executivesummary Documentnumber 3 Introductiontovaluation Documentnumber 4 Valuationtoolswilltypicallyrevolvearoundtwotypesofmethodologies FutureCashFlowsandHistoricalMarketPri
3、ces Financialstatementsandanalysts research Macroeconomicandstockmarketdata CompanyValue DCFmethod DiscountedDividendmethod Comparablecompaniesmethod Asset basedmethods Differentvaluationmethods ManagementJudgment Realoptionmethod Comparabletransactionsmethod Documentnumber 5 Makingagoodvaluationreq
4、uiresagoodunderstandingofthetarget Thereisnoblack boxtomakeavaluation Valuationisinformation ClassicmethodologyaremostlyusedAdvancedcomputersystemsareemerging Inputdatamustbecarefullydocumented traceability ValuationstartswithaonepageSWOTanalysisofthetarget Valuationisamatterofcommonsense Formulassh
5、allnotreplaceyourbestjudgmentKeepaskingkeyquestionsabouttargetBeasrigorousaspossibleateverystepoftheprocess Source RolandBerger Documentnumber 6 Gettingstartedwithvaluation Whatisthepurposeofvaluatingassets Whatdoesavaluemean Whatarethemosttypicalproblemsassociatedwithavalue Transaction Buyside sell
6、side Representation Balancesheet portfolio Riskassessment Loans Agoodstart Valueisnotaprice Forwho Forhowlong Basedonwhichassumptions Source RolandBerger 1 2 3 Documentnumber 7 Makingagoodvaluationrequiresagoodunderstandingofthetarget Thereisnoblack boxtomakeavaluation Valuationisinformation Classic
7、methodologyaremostlyusedAdvancedcomputersystemsareemerging Inputdatamustbecarefullydocumented traceability ValuationstartswithaonepageSWOTanalysisofthetarget Valuationisamatterofcommonsense FormulasshallnotreplaceyourbestjudgmentKeepaskingkeyquestionsabouttargetBeasrigorousaspossibleateverystepofthe
8、process Source RolandBerger Documentnumber 8 Preliminaryadviceforagoodvaluationwork Knowyourtarget rememberthatultimatelythemanagementwillmakethedifference Avoidworkingundersituationofstress takesometimetoreflectonthenumbers Askforhelpandideasifyoumeetunexpectedproblems usethepoweroftheteam Shareyou
9、rvaluationconclusionswithapeer Haveyourvaluationworkcheckedbyavaluationcommitteebeforecomingbacktotheclient 1 2 3 4 5 Source RolandBerger Documentnumber 9 Givingtherightnumber Acompanyvalueisalwaysarange Theresultofavaluationshouldbeveryclearononepage Rememberthatvaluationismosthelpfulfornegotiating
10、purposes DerivedfromdifferentmethodologiesNottoowidetobecredible MakeveryclearvaluationreportorresumethevaluationprocessIdentifyonaseparatedmemothepotentialissue Minorityinvestment writingonecheck Majorityinvestment writingmultiplechecks Source RolandBerger Documentnumber 10 Workinginanuncertainenvi
11、ronmentwithconfidence ChoosingagrowthrateforrevenuesisdifficultExpendituresarenotalwayswelldetailedSomeexpenditurescanbealsoconsideredasassetsSensitivitytothevariationof commodities interestrate taxes WorkonindustryforecasttofindanaverageratebybusinessesTrytoreadmorecarefullyfinancialreportsandthose
12、ofcompetitorsTrytobeconservative andpreferincreasingthegrowthpotentialRunasensitivityanalysisaftermodelinga basecase Selectedvaluationlimitations Solutions Source RolandBerger Documentnumber 11 Buildaknowledgebase Source RolandBerger Financialinformationisvaluable Keepalibraryofvaluationcases Sharet
13、hisinformationinsidetheteam BuildatransactiondatabaseMaintainitproperlyandfeedit ModelbusinesscaseDifficultiesandkeyissues EnrichthelearningexperienceofeachteammemberMakeeachteammemberacontributor Documentnumber 12 Calculatingafairvalueisalwaysachallenge Modelsarenotalways stable Terminalvalueandvol
14、atilityhaveahugeimpactonfinalresultsTheflowofcorporatenewsdoesnotstop Difficultsituation Idealsituation 500 1000 1500 Comparables DCF RealOptions 500 1000 1500 DCF RealOptions Comparables Source RolandBerger Documentnumber 13 Thevaluationequilibriumwillalsobeaffectedbydynamicexogenousfactors Changes
15、inmacroeconomicconditionswillinfluencethevaluation inparticularInterestratesGDPgrowthrateTaxrateandgovernmentpolicySpecifictechnicalmarketfactorsLiquidityTransactioncostCorporateIssuesShareholderspactAgencysignalsandmanagemententrenchmentissues Documentnumber 14 Ultimately valuationsensitivitywillde
16、pendonthemanagementcapacitytoleadvaluecreationinitiatives TheshareholdervalueofaninvestmentisthedifferencebetweenanacquisitionpremiumpaidinadvanceandthemanagementcreationinitiativestakenafterthedealBeforemakinganinvestment itisvitaltoassesstherisksandopportunitiesinvolvedindepthand ifyoudecidetogoahead encouragethemanagementofthetargettomovequicklyandeffectively Investmentvalue Valueofintendedtarget Priceofintendedtarget Stand alonevalue Potentialvaluecreationinitiatives Marketpricepriortoinvest
