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1、 Chapter19 TheChicagoSchool TheNewClassicism OVERVIEWOFTHECHICAGOSCHOOLMILTONFRIEDMANROBERTE LUCASJR GARYS BECKER TheHistoricalBackgroundoftheChicagoSchoolMajorTenetsoftheChicagoSchoolWhomDidtheChicagoSchoolBenefitorSeektoBenefit HowWastheChicagoSchoolValid Useful orCorrectinItsTime WhichTenetsofthe
2、ChicagoSchoolBecameLastingContributions 1 OVERVIEWOFTHECHICAGOSCHOOL TheHistoricalBackgroundoftheChicagoSchool ManyoftheimportantdevelopmentsineconomicthoughtsincethetimeofMarshallstimulated oratleastrationalized greatergovernmentinvolvementintheeconomy MembersoftheChicagoschoolopposedthisentireline
3、ofreasoning MajorTenetsoftheChicagoSchool ThemainprinciplesandcharacteristicsoftheChicagoschoolmaybesummarizedasfollows 1 Optimizingbehavior 2 Observedpricesandwagesingeneraltendtobegoodapproximationsoftheirlong runcompetitiveones 3 Mathematicalorientation 4 RejectionofKeynesianism 5 Limitedgovernme
4、nt WhomDidtheChicagoSchoolBenefitorSeektoBenefit ManycorporateinterestshavebenefitedfromthebroaderacceptanceofChicagoviews Ontheotherhand groupsandindividualswhorelyongovernmentforsubsidy employment regulation orspeciallegislationstandtolosebythepoliticalacceptanceofChicagoschoolpolicies WhichTenets
5、oftheChicagoSchoolBecameLastingContributions Forexample themajortextbooksonprinciplesofeconomicsallhavechaptersonthenewclassicalmacroeconomicperspective includingdiscussionsofanaturalrateofunemployment rationalexpectations along runverticalPhillipscurve andshort runversuslong runaggregatesupply TheC
6、hicagotheoriesofhumancapital householdproduction jobsearch anddiscriminationallarediscussedwithintext booksoncontemporarylaboreconomics ConsumptionFunctionMonetaryTheoryEconomicLiberalism 2 MILTONFRIEDMAN ConsumptionFunction AccordingtoFriedman ahousehold sconsumptionisdeterminedbypermanentincomerat
7、herthancurrentincome wherepermanentincomeisdefinedastheaverageincomethatpeopleexpecttoreceiveoveraperiodofyears consumptiondoesnotrespondtoeverychangeinincomecausedbychangesininvestmentorgovernmentspending itrespondsonlytochangesinincomethatpeopleviewtobepermanentandlong lasting MonetaryTheory Thede
8、mandformoney Therearethreemajordeterminantsoftheamountofmoneyhouseholdsandenterpriseswilldesiretoholdatanygiventime 1 Totalwealth 2 Costofholdingmoney 3 Preferences AccordingtoFriedman thedemandformoneyisrelativelystableintheshortrun Themodernquantitytheoryofmoney Anincreaseinthesupplyofmoneywilllea
9、vepeopleholdingcashbalancesinexcessofamountstheywant Theywillattempttoridthemselvesoftheseexcesstransactionassets whichwilldriveupthedemandforgoodsandservicesandincreaseoutput prices orsomecombinationofeach Asthepricelevelrises thedemandformoneyincreases Eventually equilibriumbetweenthequantityofmon
10、eysuppliedanddemandedisrestored butatahigherpricelevel ThecauseoftheGreatDepression FriedmanandSchwartzreachedthecontroversialconclusionthatmonetarypolicywaslargelyresponsibleforcausingtheGreatDepressionofthe1930s Later FriedmanexpressedhispositionthattheGreatContractionistragictestimonytothepowerof
11、monetarypolicy notasKeynesandsomanyofhiscontemporariesbelieved evidenceofimpotence Thelong runverticalPhillipscurve Friedmansaidthereisasimilardistinctionbetweentheactualandnaturalratesofunemployment Thenaturalrateofunemployment saidFriedman istheonethatwilloccurwhentheactualrateofinflationandtheexp
12、ectedrateofinflationareequal Figure19 1Friedman sLong RunVerticalPhillipsCurve Themonetaryrule TheFedshouldabandonitsuseofdiscretionarymonetarypolicyandadheretothemonetaryrule increasethemoneysupplyannuallyatasteadyrateroughlycorrespondingtothelong runrateofgrowthofcapacity Therearefourreasonssuchar
13、uleisneeded 1 ThepastperformanceoftheFed 2 Limitationsofeconomicknowledge 3 Confidence 4 NeutralizationoftheFed EconomicLiberalism Friedmandescribedhimselfasanineteenth centuryliberal Hewasreferring ofcourse totheeconomicliberalismthatweassociatewiththeclassicaleconomistswhoemphasizedeconomicfreedom
14、 Thus overtheyearsheadvocatedaseriesofreformsthatwouldplacelessrelianceongovernmentandmorerelianceonthemarket Themarketsystemprotectsnotonlyeconomicfreedom saidFriedman butalsopoliticalfreedom RationalExpectationsLucas sAggregateSupplyAnalysisEvaluation 3 ROBERTE LUCASJR LucasgoesbeyondFriedman sana
15、lysis sayingthateconomicagentsformrationalexpectationsaboutfutureoutcomesofcurrentstabilizationpolicy Lucassaidthatmarketparticipantsreflectontheirpasterrors useandprocessallavailableinformation andsucceedineliminatingregularitiesinerrorsinpredictingfuturepricelevelchanges RationalExpectations Figur
16、e19 2Lucas sNewClassicalMacroeconomics Lucas sAggregateSupplyAnalysis Lucas sanalysisdistinguishedbetweenshort runandlong runaggregatesupply Inthenewclassicalmodelrepresentedbythefigures anunanticipatedchangeinaggregatedemanddoesaffectthelevelofrealoutput butonlytempora rily Incontrast ananticipatedchangeinaggregatedemandhasnoeffectonrealoutputandemployment Evaluation Lucashas ineffect extendedthemicro economictheoriesofperfectcompetition rationalbehavior andWalrasianequilibriumtomacroeconomics
