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1、PreliminaryOverviewoftheEconomiesofLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean20101MexicoRealGDPinMexicoincreasedby5.3%in2010aftercontractingby6.1%in2009.Thispartialrecoveryineconomicactivitywasmainlysustainedbythedynamismofexports.Consumptionpickeduponlymoderatelyowingtoafallinrealwagesandweaknessinthelabourmarket
2、whilegrossfixedinvestmentexperiencedonlyaslightexpansion.Inflationwasabout4.2%atyearsenddownonthe5.3%ofayearearlier.Theurbanopenunemploymentrateimprovedto6.6%inthethirdquarterof2010from7.7%inthesamequarterof2009.ThecurrentaccountdeficitdeclinedslightlyasapercentageofGDPto0.6%fromthe0.7%recordedin200
3、9asexportsgrewstrongly.Thepublic-sectorfiscaldeficitincludinginvestmentbyPetrleosMexicanos(PEMEX)willclose2010at2.7%anincreaseonthe2009figureof2.3%.ECLACestimatesthattheeconomywillexpandby3.5%in2011asexportgrowthtailsoffanddomesticdemandremainsslack.TheBankofMexicoexpectsitsannualinflationtargetof3%
4、tobemetinlate2011whichisfeasibleiftherearenonewexternalshocksandthetrendtowardshigherinternationalcommoditypricesseeninlate2010doesnotpersist.Expectationsareforafiscaldeficitof2.3%includingPEMEXinvestment.The2011revenueactprovidesinorchangesmostnotablyanincreaseinspecialtaxesleavingforlateracomprehe
5、nsivefiscalretomakefiscalrevenueslessheavilydependentonoil.Thislawassumesanaverageexchangerateof12.9pesostothedollarinitsestimatesoffiscalrevenueassociatedwithoilexports.Ifthecurrencycontinuedtoappreciatetherewouldbeadditionalfiscalpressures.Public-sectorbudgetaryrevenuesgrewby0.1%inrealtermsbetween
6、JanuaryandSeptember2010overtheyear-earlierperiod.Taxrevenueswere10%ofGDPandtotaloilrevenuesgrewby4.9%inrealtermsaslowervolumeswereoffsetbyhigherprices.Valueaddedtax(VAT)revenueincreasedby19.9%inrealtermsthankstoanincreaseintheVATratefrom15%to16%andrenewedeconomicgrowth.Similarlyanincreasefrom28%to30
7、%inthetopincometaxrateproducedreal-termgrowthof12.5%intheyieldfromthistax.Thisisexplainedbythesubstantialnon-recurringrevenuesreceivedin2009fromtheBankofMexicooperatingsurplusandtherecoveryofOilRevenuesStabilizationFund(FEIP)resourceswhilein2010specialfiscalbenefitsweregrantedtotheareasaffectedbyHur
8、ricaneAlex.Budgetedspendingincreasedby2.2%inrealtermsbetweenJanuaryandSeptember2010comparedwiththesameperiodin2009withparticularlylargerisesinsocialdevelopmentspending(5.7%)andtransferstothestates(14%).Domesticborrowingwasthemainsourceoffinancingforthefiscaldeficit(abouttwothirdsofthetotal).Converse
9、lyphysicalinvestmentfellby4%inrealterms.AtthecloseofthethirdquarterMEXICO:GDPINFLATIONANDUNEMPLOYMENT-10-8-6-4-2024681Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q200820092010GDPfour-quartervariation-10-8-6-4-202468Inflation12-monthvariationunemployedasapercentageoftheeconomicallyactivepopulationGDPInflationUnemploymentSou
10、rce:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)onthebasisofofficialfigures.2EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)netfederalpublic-sectordebtwasworth30.7%ofGDP(0.6percentagepointsabovetheclosingfigurefor2009)whichwaslowerthantheaverageforthemembercountriesoftheOrganisati
11、onforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)buthigherthantheLatinAmericanaverage.Ofthistotaldomesticdebtrepresented21.1%ofGDPandnetexternaldebt9.6%ofGDP(0.5and0.1percentagepointsmorethanatthecloseof2009respectively).Thefederalgovernmentcarriedouttwomajorbondsalesoninternationalmarketswhichshouldena
12、bleittomeetitsfinancingneedsforthenexttwoyears.InearlyOctoberitissuedUS$1billionworthof100-yearbondswithanannualyieldof6.1%withMexicotherebybecomingthefirstcountryinLatinAmericatoissuedebtofthiskindwithsuchalongmaturity.AfewdayslateritsoldaboutUS$1.8billionofyen-denominatedpaperknownassamuraibonds.I
13、nanenvironmentoflowinflationtheBankofMexicokeptitsreferenceinterestratetheone-dayinterbankrateunchangedat4.5%forthefirst11monthsoftheyear.Thiscontrastswiththeratereductionpolicyfollowedin2009whichbroughtratesdownby375basispointsbetweenJanuaryandJuly.Nonethelessin2010therewasaflatteningoftheyieldcurv
14、eduetolowerinflationaryexpectationsanimprovedperceptionofcountryriskandafocusingofdemandforgovernmentpaperonlong-termissues.Realdepositratesremainedpositiveand28-dayFederationTreasuryCertificates(CETES)wereofferingarealannualrateof0.5%atthecloseofthethirdquarter.MEXICO:MAINECONOMICINDICATORS20082009
15、2010aAnnualpercentagegrowthratesGrossdomesticproduct14-6153Percapitagrossdomesticproduct05-7043Consumerprices653643bAveragerealwagec2208-06dMoney(M1)9078135eRealeffectiveexchangeratef28141-81gTermsoftrade08-3219AnnualaveragepercentagesUrbanunemploymentrate496765hPublicsectoroverallbalanceGDP-01-23-2
16、7Nominaldepositinterestrate675142iNominallendinginterestrate877153jMillionsofdollarsExportsofgoodsandservices309383244550309076Importsofgoodsandservices-334022-257557-323012Currentaccount-16514-6228-6154Capitalandfinancialaccountk245951075519954Overallbalance8080452713800Source:EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC)onthebasisofofficialfigures.aPreliminaryestimates.bTwelve-monthvariationtoNovember2010.cManufacturingsector.dEstimatebasedondatafromJanuarytoSeptember.eTwelve-mont
