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1、2011 global economy outlook Nomura global economy 2011 Global Economic OutlookNOMURA GLOBAL ECONOMICS Rocky Road of Recovery Emerging economies thrive, but risk mishandling rebalancing. Developed ones advance, but into post-crisis headwinds. Now the twain must meet. Nomura Securities International I
2、nc. See Disclosure Appendix A1 for the Analyst Certification and Other Important Disclosures 2011 Global Economic Outlook Contents GLOBAL Forecast summary 3 Our 6view on 2011 in a nutshell 4 Global Outlook 2011: A rocky road of recovery 6 One year on: a 2010 forecast post-mortem 5 QE: Back to basics
3、, again 7 GEMaRI: Brave new world 8 Global imbalances: Putting the basic macro identity to work 10 Global politics outlook 2011 12 NORTH AMERICA US Outlook 2011: Debt hangover limits recovery 13 Household deleveraging 14 The output gap 16 The new fiscal debate 17 Fed policy in the crosshairs 19 US E
4、conomic Outlook: Firmer turf on the recovery road 20 Canada Economic Outlook: In need of a push from the neighbours 21 EURO AREA Euro Area Outlook 2011: A slippery road lies ahead 22 Turning now to credit 23 House price prospects 24 Are the periphery countries solvent? 26 Liquidity withdrawal: When
5、the time is right 28 Euro Area Economic Outlook: Breaking up is hard to do 29 European Countries Economic Outlook: Germany, France, Netherlands 30 European Countries Economic Outlook: Italy, Spain, Switzerland 31 Scandinavian Economic Outlook: Norway, Denmark, Sweden 32 Periphery Europe Economic Out
6、look: Greece, Portugal, Ireland 33 UNITED KINGDOM UK Outlook 2011: Rebalancing the books 34 Counting the cost of fiscal consolidation 35 Permanent impairment in productive potential 36 UK Economic Outlook: Gale-force rebalancing 38 JAPAN Japan Outlook 2011: Export-led recovery on the horizon 39 Unde
7、rlying growth in consumer spending 40 The BOJs risk tolerance 42 Japans deflation and the output gap 43 Japan Economic Outlook: Emerging from the soft patch 45 Nomura Global Economics 1 6 December 2010 2011 Global Economic Outlook ASIA Asia Outlook 2011: Challenges of rebalancing 46 China: Gearing u
8、p for further reforms 47 Asia macro policy: Not enough to fight inflation 48 Asia politics outlook 2011-2012 51 Australia Economic Outlook: Tiger taming 52 New Zealand Economic Outlook: A patchy recovery 53 China Economic Outlook: GDP growth of 9-10% to continue 54 Hong Kong Economic Outlook: Robust
9、 growth continues 55 India Economic Outlook: The consolidation year 56 Indonesia Economic Outlook: Poised for take off 57 Malaysia Economic Outlook: Reform awaits a mandate 58 Philippines Economic Outlook: Making inroads 59 Singapore Economic Outlook: Back to trend 60 South Korea Economic Outlook: T
10、win imbalances 61 Taiwan Economic Outlook: Balanced growth ahead 62 Thailand Economic Outlook: Still all about political risks 63 Vietnam Economic Outlook: Higher growth and inflation ahead 64 EMERGING EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA EEMEA Outlook 2011: Policy design for postmodern times 65 Forecast
11、sensitivity to oil prices 66 Sovereign wealth funds: Repositioning post-crisis 68 Politics across EEMEA 70 Hungary Economic Outlook: Investor unfriendly policies dampen growth 71 Poland Economic Outlook: Racing ahead, fiscal clouds 72 Russia Economic Outlook: Lacking momentum 73 South Africa Economi
12、c Outlook: Unexciting growth, policy more interesting 74 Turkey Economic Outlook: Widening imbalances 75 Rest of EEMEA Economic Outlook: Czech Republic, Romania, Israel 76 Rest of EEMEA Economic Outlook: Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Egypt 77 Rest of EEMEA Economic Outlook: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab E
13、mirates 78 LATIN AMERICA LatAm Outlook 2011: Too much of a good thing 79 What drives inflation in Latin America 80 Key elections in Latin America 82 Brazil Economic Outlook: Inflation risks challenge outlook 84 Mexico Economic Outlook: A stronger recovery on the way 85 Rest of LatAm Economic Outlook
14、: Argentina, Chile, Colombia 86 FOREIGN EXCHANGE Foreign Exchange Outlook 2011: A global rebalancing act 88 EQUITY MARKET Equity Market Outlook 2011: Reducing the risk premium 89 Nomura Global Economics 2 6 December 2010 2011 Global Economic Outlook Forecast Summary Real GDP (% y-o-y) Consumer Price
15、s (% y-o-y) Policy Rate (% end of period)201020112012201020112012201020112012Global4.84.34.53.23.63.52.963.474.00Developed2.62.22.51.51.71.50.600.871.17Emerging Markets7.46.66.75.35.75.75.736.417.06Americas3.72.93.13.02.82.61.942.072.46United States*2.82.52.71.61.61.30.130.130.13Canada2.92.42.81.72.
16、02.01.002.253.75Latin America6.64.34.47.36.76.77.597.718.82Argentina9.05.04.726.424.425.49.2312.0011.00Brazil7.44.04.95.84.94.510.7510.0010.00Chile5.56.55.02.52.73.03.254.005.00Colombia4.85.04.52.53.53.73.004.007.00Mexico5.34.03.44.03.94.04.504.507.50Asia/Pacific7.96.77.13.54.14.34.154.905.43?Japan3.71.12.0-0.8-0.10.10.050.050.05Australia2.83.33.63.03.13.14.755.255.25New Zealand1.82.83.42.33.92.43.003.754.50Asia
