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1、 I 摘摘 要要 华夏民族是一个勤劳、聪明的民族，我们的祖先曾经创造了无与伦比的辉煌 和成就。然而，就是在这成就的光环下，在别人的文攻武伐、钢船铁炮下，我们 也尝到了痛彻心扉的屈辱和悲伤。经过一个世纪的风霜雨露、浴血奋斗，我们又 一次站在世界发展的舞台上，享受独领风骚的喜悦和魅力。古人说，痛定思痛。 回首这一个世纪的历程， 我们深深地感受到经济基础决定上层建筑这一命题的真 实性和重要性。在 30 年的改革开放过程中，我们遇到了不可想象的重重阻碍， 我们也取得了举世瞩目的成果。 但不可否认的是， 在我们取得历史性突破的同时， 西方国家的经济也得到了全面的发展。 如果说西方世界从林静山幽的田园社会
2、，转变为机器轰鸣的工业化国家，在 很大程度上取决于自然资源与物质资本的积累，那么在科学日新月异，技术飞速 发展的今天，人力资本对于经济的发展，就更具决定性的意义。经济增长问题实 质上是讨论经济社会潜在生产能力的长期变化趋势， 即说明是什么决定了长期中 产量的增长率。 在宏观经济学中， 对这类问题的解答有两种互为补充的分析方法， 一种是把增长过程中要素供给、技术进步、储蓄和投资的互动关系模型化；另一 种是增长核算，它试图把经济增长的不同决定因素的贡献程度数量化。本文基于 教育投资和健康投资两个视角，研究人力资本投资与安徽经济增长之间的关系， 探讨安徽经济增长进程中各要素的贡献率。全文共分为六个部
3、分，其中： 第一部分是绪论，交待了本文的研究背景、研究目的与意义，并简要地对本 文所采用的研究方法与思路和本文的研究特色与创新进行了介绍。 第二部分是理论综述， 阐述了国内外学者对人力资本投资与经济增长理论的 研究现状，并对本文所需要的理论基础进行了详细的介绍。 第三部分在永续盘存法的基础上量化了安徽近 30 年来的物质资本存量和劳 动力要素投入的数据进行了估计和调整。 第四部分详细地介绍了人力资本投资量化的研究方法， 并且从教育投资和健 康投资两个视角出发， 对缺失数据和异常数据采用时间序列的曲线估计法进行估 计和调整，并根据舒尔茨的人力资本计量公式估算出安徽的人力资本存量。 第五部分则是根
4、据道格拉斯生产函数和卢卡斯的人力资本外生模型建立安 II 徽经济增长计量模型，采用 SPSS16.0、Markway、Eviews 等统计分析软件对安 徽经济增长要素的贡献度数量化。此外，在单整、协整检验的基础上，采用自回 归分步滞后模型对本文的实证结果进行了检验和调整。 第六部分则根据本文研究所得出的结论， 就如何促进安徽省人力资本投资与 经济增长的协调发展提出了一些对策和建议。 关键词关键词: :人力资本投资；教育投资；健康投资；安徽经济增长 III Abstract Well-known as an industrial and intelligent people, the Chine
5、se people once accomplished parallelled glories and achievements. Bearing this halo, however, the Chinese people also tasted the heartfelt humiliation and sorrows under the attack of others armed with advanced weapons. After about a centurys hardship and hard work, we are now standing at the global
6、development stage, enjoying the happiness and honour of being a leader. There is an old saying that the hardship must be remembered although it has passed.Looking back what has happened during the past century, we deeply understand the truth and significance of the proposition that the economic base
7、 determines the superstructure. In the course of 30 years Reform and Opening-up, we has achieved a lot with global importance after conquering inconceivable difficulties one by one. It cannot be denied that the economy of the western countries has also been developing with all respects during this p
8、eriod. Human capital has a determining significance in todays economic development which both science and technology advance rapidly, if the transforming of the western world from a backworld pastoral society to advanced industrial countries depended largely on the accumulation of natural and capita
9、l resources.The issue of economic growth, in essence, is to discuss the long-term trends of the potential economic and societal production ability. In other words, it explains what determines the long-term production growth. In macroeconomics, the solving of this sort of issues has two complementary
10、 analysis methods. One is the modelization of the interaction relations of factor supplies, technological advances, savings and investment during the growth course. The other is growth accounting, which tries to quantify the contribution of the different determining factors of economic growth. This
11、paper uses the latter method to explore the contribution rate of each factor during the course of Anhui Provinces economic growth. The paper is divided into six parts as following: The first part is an introduction, which first states the background, purpose and significance of the study, then brief
12、ly introduces the study methods and ideas. IV The second part is the summary of the theories, which states the status quo of human capital investment and economic growth theories from both at home and abroad, and also a detailed description of the needed theories. The third part, based on the perpet
13、ual inventory method, quantifies the 30 years physical capital stock of Anhui Province, and adjusts Anhuis data of labour force investment in the past 30 years. The forth part gives a detailed description of study method of the quantification of human capital investment. From the perspectives of edu
14、cation and healthcare investment, Anhui Provinces human capital stock is estimated using Schulzs human capital measurement formula, with the time series curve estimation of missing data. The fifth part, using Douglas production function and human capital model of Lucas, proposes the econometric mode
15、l of Anhui economic growth. By using such statistical analysing softwares as SPSS16.0, Markay,and Eviews, the contribution of each factor of Anhui economic growth is quantified. In addition, based on the single-integration and co-integration tests, the empirical results are tested and adjusted with
16、step-by-step autoregressive lag model. The sixth part, based on the study conclusion, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed concerning to how to promote the coordinated development of Anhui Provinces human capital investment and economic growth. Key words: human capital investment；education investment；health-care investment； Anhui Provinces economic growth V 目目 录录 第一章第一章 绪绪 论论 1 1 一、研究背景 1 二、研究目的与意义 1 三、研究方法与思路 2 四、研究特色与创新 3 第二章第二章 人力资本与经济增长理论综述人力资本与经济增长理论综述 . .
