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1、2922 0 11M2nullnull?nullnullSnullWater Resources and PowerVol.29 No.2Feb.2 0 1 1cI|: 1000-7709(2011) 02-0035-04s!9s张 null 涛1,赵培青1,李光吉1,雒文生2(1.8!9,62250013; 2.qv,q430072)K1: 针对实测样本容量的局限性及方法选择等可能导致年洪水标准与分期洪水标准不一致问题,分析了年设计洪水与分期设计洪水的概率统计关系,提出了分期设计洪水组合频率与年设计洪水频率的误差估计方法及分期洪水校正方法b实例结果表明,校正后的分期设计洪水不会降低年设计洪水
2、标准,基本符合相应分期的季节丰枯特性b1oM: 分期设计洪水; 频率组合; 误差估计; 洪水校正ms|: TV122+ .3DS: Al: 2010-09-12,: 2010-10-18Te:f!( 1980-) ,3,pV3,Z_,E-mail:zhangtaozxp null nullM,SvM!9o!9,jM=sj1M,/nbM,s!9,Lsbs!9Xo4rm1oB1, 2b-,s!99ZE1qs!9Ts|aqwLL#9ZEyb=e1, 3.dZEwpMSsSiB5,oS;Singh4, 5MKv4s!9wpZE,V?QqsTVL;R36Copulafwps,s!9?MS,L=s;7yp
3、Kv!9qxs!9bs!91o5M!9q1B,yNss!9b1null9ZEqswps!9?/: null,bsL#NVLaBaV#Ca+vbnullbIn1M?p#L=5y,ss;sInHW#bWMs,st|,FKv#d9bnullq9bqwL(P- nulla),9$qaLbnullVbvb4VL,1bvEqbvEbv!9a!9VLb2nullqFs2.1nulls!9M!9qFsqYqs=?3q,MqYq1 a=(s)?3qbLs-a(aQ),MKvM=sKv,L!MKv(?3=,MKvKv,sKvMs=KvbBM=KvMH 0,-asKvMsYH1aH2,H0= max(H1,H 2)
4、bVqd9sYq?3vnullqF:PH0 null h = PH 1 null h,H2 null h =PH 1 null h null PH2 null h (1)quWqsP( h)=PH nullh,:PH0 nullh = PH 1 nullh,H2 nullh =PH 1 nullh null PH2 nullh (2)7#-aqsfsY: P0 (h)= PH 0 nullhaP1(h) = PH 1 nullhaP2(h)= PH2 nullh,5:P0(h) = P1(h) null P2(h) =P1(h) + P2(h) - P1(h) null P2(h) (3)-a
5、MMH:P0(h) = P1(h) + P2(h) - P1(h)P2(h) (4)Fqp/b1nullwpa-qwLP0aP1aP2b2nullqpi,paMqMh= x0(pi)b3nullX-qwLpMhqp 1(h)ap2(h)b4nullT(4)p-MhFqpnull0(h)b+7,-BM1,L-Me9b2.2null9K#sqwL4Y,sFqpnull0(h)qP0(h)iB,qF:E(Hnull) = E(H1)+ E(H2) -nullf 1P2dh-nullf 2P1dh(5)T,E(H 1)aE(H 2)sY-aqwL;f 1af 2sY-aqwLqfbE9:Enull(H
6、null) = nullIi= 1hi nullPnull(hi) (6)(RuaR(h)sY:Ru = Enull(Hnull) - E0(H) /E0(H) (7)R(h) = Pnull(H) - P0(H)/P0(H) (8)XPnull(H)aP0(H)9f,5R(h)Vf,H|,:R(h) null= f 1 + f 2- f 1P2- f 2P1 P0 -P1 + P2- P1P2 f 0 /P20 = 0 (9)T,f 0qwLqfbx#a, b,TpKvRmaxaKlRminb+,ypSRu null 0, 0. 05)aR(h) null (- 0. 15,0.20)(95
7、%)bqfH,VsZpT(4)a(5)a(7)bS=H,Vs9v,qkb2.3nulls!9nL-aMM,nFqP0(h):P0(h) = max P0(h), Pnull0(h) (10)null Pnull0(h) = P1(h)+ P2(h)- P1(h)P2(h)MKvVaNIZ1ss,ypMKvTssG8 ,%VL!9Bs!9,a6Bs!9b-MVLH,5%q,a-q,T(10)nqP2(h),wbk-?3YqBM1,MM/,T(4)Fq1L=FqlbyN,lYq(vqYq)H,VS=aq,E/qwL(vqYq)IVvb2.4nullsBqFqTV?3SYqq:P = P(x null y) = PX(x) + PY(y) - PX,Y(x,y)(11)T,xaysY-a?3VSYq,oVa
