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1、第五讲 世界粮食安全问题 厉为民 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 2009 年 11 月 18 日,2,世界粮食安全问题 2009 年世界发生了什么? 世界粮食安全是不是出了大问题?,3,World Summit on Food Security 2009 年11月 为何召开世界粮食安全 首脑会议?,4,世界粮食安全问题,16-18 November 2009,5,World Summit on Food Security,世界粮食安全首脑会议,6,World Summit on Food Security 全球粮食不安全形势恶化, 对人类构成严重威胁 发展中国家粮食价格居高不下, 几年来
2、受饥饿影响的人口持续增加,7,World Summit on Food Security 全球经济危机对就业产生影响, 使贫困加剧, 形势不断恶化 粮农组织估计: 2009 年饥饿人口 可能又要增加一 亿, 超越10 亿大关,8,World Summit on Food Security 一个肯尼亚小男孩 正在捡拾从联合国 粮农组织的卡车上 掉下来的粮食,9,World Summit on Food Security 在乍得的一个难民营，一名脸上爬满苍蝇的苏丹小男孩在哭泣,10,World Summit on Food Security 巴基斯坦难民在当地清真寺 争夺免费的食物.,11,Wor
3、ld Summit on Food Security,FAO 估计: 2009 年饥饿人口可能增加一亿, 超越10 亿大关,12,World Summit on Food Security,13,World Summit on Food Security 粮农组织总干事 雅克 迪乌夫: 无声的饥饿危机正在对全人类六分之一人口产生影响, 给世界平和与安全带来了严重危险 我们迫切需要就彻底、迅速根除世界饥饿达成广泛共识。,14,World Summit on Food Security Summit declaration vows better governance, increased inv
4、estment and proactive climate change strategy,15,World Summit on Food Security,World leaders convened at FAO Headquarters for the World Summit on Food Security today unanimously adopted a declaration pledging renewed commitment to eradicate hunger from the face of the earth sustainably and at the ea
5、rliest date.,16,World Summit on Food Security,Countries also agreed to work to reverse the decline in domestic and international funding for agriculture and promote new investment in the sector, to improve governance of global food issues in partnership with relevant stakeholders from the public and
6、 private sector, and to proactively face the challenges of climate change to food security.,17,World Summit on Food Security,In his address to the Summit, UN Secretary- General Ban Ki Moon called the current food crisis “a wake-up call for tomorrow“. “There can be no food security without climate se
7、curity,“ Ban said.,18,World Summit on Food Security,“If the glaciers of the Himalaya melt, it will affect the livelihoods and survival of three hundred million people in China and up to a billion people throughout Asia,“ he said.,19,World Summit on Food Security,Africas small farmers, who produce mo
8、st of the continents food and depend mostly on rain, could see harvests drop by 50 per cent by 2020. We must make significant changes to feed ourselves and, most especially, to safeguard the poorest and most vulnerable.,20,World Summit on Food Security,“Tragic achievement” Calling the over one billi
9、on hungry people in the world “our tragic achievement in these modern days“, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf stressed the need to produce food where the poor and hungry live and to boost agricultural investment in these regions.,21,World Summit on Food Security,In some developed countries, two to
10、 four percent of the population are able to produce enough food to feed the entire nation and even to export, while in the majority of developing countries, 60 to 80 percent of the population are not able to meet country food needs,“ Diouf said.,22,World Summit on Food Security,The planet can feed i
11、tself, provided that the decisions made are honoured and the required resources are effectively mobilized, he said, calling for an increase in official development assistance to agriculture, a greater share of developing country budgets devoted to agriculture and incentives to encourage private inve
12、stment.,23,World Summit on Food Security,Eliminating hunger from the face of Earth requires US$44 billion of official development assistance per year to be invested in infrastructure, technology and modern inputs. It is a small amount if we consider the $365 billion of agriculture producer support i
13、n OECD countries in 2007, and if we consider the $1,340 billion of military expenditures by the world in the same year,“ Diouf said.,24,World Summit on Food Security,Over the past five years, several countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia have succeeded to substantially reduce the number of hun
14、gry people in their territories,“ Diouf said. “This means that we know what should be done and how it can be done to defeat hunger.“,25,World Summit on Food Security,Diouf also underlined the fact that food security goes beyond production. “We need protection against pests and diseases of plants and
15、 animals which often directly affect human health. We have likewise to face emergency situations resulting from natural disasters and to conserve the national resource base of food production to ensure sustainability.“,26,World Summit on Food Security,“Hunger is the most cruel and concrete sign of p
16、overty,” said His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI. “Opulence and waste are no longer acceptable when the tragedy of hunger is assuming ever greater proportions.”,27,世界的粮食安全问题 粮食安全的关键问题 主要国家的粮食安全政策 警惕西方的阴谋 问题和出路 从中得到的启示,28,粮食安全问题 研究粮食安全的历史,29,粮食安全问题 世界对 “粮食安全” 的重视始于 20 世纪 70 年代。主要就 50 年代遗留的饥饿-缺粮问题总结了教训，就小麦、大米、玉米三大作物的最低储备水平进行研究,30,粮食安全问题 研究在设置了五个前提条件，得出了一些被后来广泛认可的结论: 全世界谷物的周转储备量应达到消费量的 1213%,谷物的后备储备量应达到 56%,31,粮食安全问题 两项合计, 全世界谷物的储备量的最低安全水平为世界总消费量的 1718%。这可以使世界一年的消费量得到维持的概率达到 95%,32,粮食安全问题 这个
