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1、Classified Index:U.D.C:CODE: 10075NO: 20090308A Dissertation for the Degree of M. LawAnalysis on the Influence of EconomicFactors on Unbalance of Birth SexRatioCandidate: MalinSupervisor: Prof. Tang ZhaoyunAcademic Degree Applied for: Master of LawSpecialty: DemographyUniversity: Hebei UniversityDat
2、e of Oral Examination: May, 2012摘摘要要自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，中国出现了持续的出生人口性别比持续攀高的现象，迄今尚未逆转。在中国现阶段,人均收入水平、社会保障实力、地区发展的不平衡等因素,通过性别观念、家庭结构、社会保障、技术条件等中间因素,构成影响我国出生人口性别比偏高的主要原因之一。本文通过阐述我国出生人口性别比的发展进程，并充分利用历次全国人口普查和大型抽样调查的基础数据，结合经验研究的数据进行深入发掘，采用定量分析方法对出生性别比动态趋势及其规律进行描述统计，并对影响出生性别比水平和特征的社会经济和人口因素进行定量统计分析。文中在分析我国经济因
3、素对出生性别比的分贡献率后不难发现，外向型经济发展规模较小的近海内陆区对出生性别比的贡献率影响较大；乡村较高的出生性别比对总体出生性别比的升高起到决定性作用。在此基础上笔者进行了一项定量研究，选取河北省各县、（市）人口出生性别比数据与调查数据和经济指标为依据，做出相关关系的测算与分析，可以看出河北省各县、（市）人口出生性别比与各项经济指标之间表现出复杂的曲线关系，而男孩偏好即是出生性别比升高的内在动因，证实经济因素对出生人口性别比的影响确实存在。即在人们生活水平较低时,由于涉及到自身生活质量、养老保险保障等一系列切身问题,人们比较乐意生育男孩。本文将经济因素作为切入点，认为在人口控制的政策效应
4、正在不断弱化的当下，社会文化和经济因素开始逐步超越政策因素成为影响人们、特别是农村育龄夫妇生育行为的主导力量，人口与计划生育事业的向前推进，需要以生育文化为成长点的制度创新和以经济发展为支撑的利益导向，努力促进出生性别比的平衡，实现人口社会的和谐发展。关键词经济因素出生性别比男孩偏好IAbstractAbstractSince the 1980s, the sex ratio at birth of China has been continued rising. Thisphenomenon has not yet been reversed so far. Presently in chi
5、na, the level of per capitaincome, social security strength, regional development imbalances and other factors, throughintermediate factors, such as the concept of gender, family structure, social security,technological conditions constitute one of the main reasons of this phenomenon.Through expatia
6、ting the development of Chinas sex ratio at birth, making full use of thebasic data of all previous national census and sample survey, as well as the data of empiricalresearch, and using the quantitative analysis method, this dissertation made a descriptivestatistic of the dynamic trend and law to t
7、he sex ratio at birth. In the meanwhile, the paper alsomade a quantitative analysis to the socio-economic and demographic factors which affectedthe level and characteristics of sex ratio. Through analyzing the economic factorscontribution rate to the Sex Ratio at Birth, we can easily find that, the
8、coastal inland area inwhich export-oriented economy underdeveloped had bigger influence to the contribution rateof the sex ratio at birth, and high sex ratio at birth in rural area had the decisive influence onthe increasing overall sex ratio at birth. Based on the information above, the author made
9、 aquantitative study. According to the sex ratio at birth data and survey data of each counties(city) in Hebei Province and economic indicators, we can find the relationship betweenpopulation sex ratio at birth of each counties (city) in Hebei Province and the variouseconomic indicators was very com
10、plex through calculation and analysis, and the preferencefor boys was the intrinsic motivation of the increasing sex ratio at birth which confirmed theexistence of economic factors on the sex ratio at birth. When peoples living standard was low,due to life quality of their own, pension and insurance
11、 coverage, they preferred to have boys.Taking the economic factor as a starting point, this dissertation considered that at themoment when the effect of population control policy weakened gradually, social, cultural andeconomic factors become the leading factor which impacted the procreation behavio
12、r ofpeople, especially the couples in rural area. The development of the population and familyplanning project need the support of institutional innovation which taking the procreationculture as growth point and the interest-oriented economic development so as to promote thebalance of sex ratio at birth and achieve the harmonious development of society of thepopulation.Keywordseconomic factorsthe sex ratio at birth preference for boysII目目录录第 1 章绪论 . 11.11.2研究背景和研究意义 . 1研究思路和研究方法 . 21.2.11.2.2研究思路 . 2研究方法 . 21.31.4研究主要内容与创新点 .
