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1、Shift-shareChineseGeographicalScience200717(2)173178D0I:l0.1007/sll769-007-0l73-2.springerlink.tomShift-shareAnalysisonInternationalTourismCompetitiveness_ACaseofJiangsuProvinceSHIChunyun一,ZHANGJie,YANGYang,ZHOUZhangfJ.SchoolofGeographicandOceanographicSciences,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing210093,China,
2、2.SchoolofUrbanandEnvironmentalSciences,XuzhouNormalUniversity,Xuzhou221116,China;3.Centerfo,RecreationandTourismResearch,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China,4.JiangsuTourismAdministration,Nanjing210003,China)Abstract:Shift-shareanalysishasbeenconfirmedausefulapproachinthestudyofregionaleconomicsan
3、dmanykindsofextendedshift.sharemodelshavebeenadvancedandputintopracticeineconomicstudies,butfewhavehithertobeenintroducedandappliedtothetourismresearchinChina.Moreoverunderstandingthespatiallycompetitiverelationshipisofparamountimportanceformarketers,developers,andplannersinvolvedintourismstrategyde
4、velopment.Basedoninternationaltourismreceiptsfrom1995to2004,thisstudyaimsatprobingintothespatialcompetitivenessofinterna-tionaltourisminJiangsuProvinceincomparisonwithitsneighborsbyapplyingaspatiallyextendedshift-sharemodelandamodifieddynamicshift-sharemode1.Theempiricalresultsillustratethatexceptio
5、nalyearsmayexistinthe印-plicationofdynamicshift-sharemodels.Tosolvethisissue,modificationstodynamicshift-sharemodelareputforward.TheanalyticalresultsarenotonlypresentedbutalsoexplainedbythecomparisonofbackgroundconditionsoftourismdevelopmentbetweenJiangsuanditskeycompetitors.Theconclusionscanbedrawnt
6、hatthegrowthofinternationaltourismreceiptsinJiangsumainlyattributestothenationalcomponentandthecompetitivecomponentandZhejiangisthemostimportantrivaltoJiangsuduringtheperiodof1995-2004.Inordertoupgradethetourismcompetitiveness,itisindispensableforJiangsutotakeproperpositioning,promotingandmarketings
7、trategiesandtocooperateandintegratewithitsmainrivals.Keywords:internationaltourismcompetitiveness;spatiallyextendedshift-shareanalysismodel;comparativestaticshift.-shareanalysis;modifieddynamicshift.-shareanalysis;JiangsuProvincelIntr0ducti0nTheoriginalformulationofshiftsharemethodwasfirstadvancedby
8、Creamer(1943)andthenwassummarizedandinducedbyDunn(1960).Shift.shareanalysishasgenerallybeenusedfordescribingregionalandindustrialeconomicgrowthandexaminingthestructuraleffectandregionalorindustrialcompetitivenessunderliningthechanges.Ithasbeenaverypowerfultoolformeasuringthechangesovertimeinregional
9、economics,marketing,urbanstudies,etc.StevensandMoore(1980)putforwardthatthefactortoaccountforitspopularityisthetechni.callysimpleprocedure.Shiftshareanalysisrequiresonlylessdatathataregenerallyaccessible.Despiteitssimplicity,itdoeswellincapturingtheunderliningchangesinthevariablesunderconsideration(
10、NazaraandHew.ings,2004)andmakingtheanalysisfastandreasonablyaccurate.Shiftshareanalysishasjustbeenappliedtotourismindustryinrecentyears(Sirakayaeta1.,1995;Fuchseta1.,2000;AlaviandYasin,2000;Sirakayaeta1.,2002;Toheta1.,2001:2003;2004;Yasineta1.,2004).Employment,arrivalsandreceiptsareusuallyusedasvari
11、ablestomeasurechangesintheshift.sharemodels(Shieta1.,2007).OnlyinrecentyearshaveafewstudiesusingshiftshareanalysisfocusedonsectoralstructureandcompetitivenesswithintourismindustryinChina(Yangeta1.,2005;WenandWang,2005;Chu,2005;LiandCheng,2004;Wangeta1.,2004).Moreover,althoughmanykindsofextendedshift
12、.sharemodelshavebeenReceiveddate:2006-06-25;accepteddate:2007-03-18Foundationitem:UndertheauspicesoftheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(No.40371030)Biography:SHIChunyun.E-mail:174SHIChunyun,ZHANGJe,YANG口ngetnladvanced,theapplicationofthemodelstotourismresearchinChinamainlylimitstothecomparati
13、vestaticmodelofshift.shareanalysis.ThusthisstudyaimedatapplyingbothspatiallyextendedshiftshareanalyticalapproachandmodifieddynamicmodeltotourismspatialcompetitivenessofJiangsuProvincebasedonintema-tionaltourismreceiptsfrom1995to2004.2Methodology2.1ComparativestaticmodelanditsextendedmodelsTraditiona
14、lshift.shareanalysisisusedtodecomposeregionalgrowthovertimeintothreeeffe:cts:thenationalgrowtheffect,theindustrymixedeffect,andthetom-petitiveeffect,whichisgenerallyappliedinastudyperiodofseveralyearsandexaminesconditionsonlyatthebeginningandtheendyearsInsuchacomparativestaticapproach,thesubtleswing
15、sduringthestudyperiodswerelost(Sirakayaeta1.1995).TheinherentlimitationsOfthiscomparativestaticmethod,however,canbeovercomebycalculatingtheshiftshareeffectsonamultiple.yeardataonthebasisofcreatingdynamic,time.series.1ikedata(Sirakayaeta1.,2002).Thedynamicshift.shareanalysisisanextensionofThirlwallsf1967)suggestionthatthestudyperiodbedividedintotwoormoresub.periodstoreducetheseverityofthechanges.Itprovidesamoreaccurateallocationofchangestocal-culatethenationalgrowtheffect,theindustrymixedeffect.andthecompetitiveeffectonanannualbasisandthensumtheresultsoverthestudyperiod.One
