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1、南京财经大学 硕士学位论文 江苏省经济增长的持续性与稳定性实证研究 姓名：黄娑 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：数量经济学 指导教师：王庚 2010-01-07 I 摘 要 改革开放以来，江苏作为沿海地区的重要省份，抓住了历史发展机遇，经 济增长突飞猛进。但是在保持高速经济增长的同时，江苏还存在着一些突出的 矛盾和问题。比如能源短缺问题、环境污染问题非常严重；2008 年国际金融危 机给高度依赖出口的江苏经济带来了强烈的冲击，等等。如果解决不好这些问 题，将会严重威胁到经济增长的持续性和稳定性。在这一背景下，本文以“江 苏省经济增长的持续性与稳定性”为研究主题，具有非常重要的现实意义。 本文在对江苏
2、省经济增长持续性与稳定性初步分析的基础上，选取影响江 苏经济增长持续性与稳定性的主要因素，进行详细地实证研究。关于江苏省经 济增长持续性的研究，该部分有两个内容：一是通过灰色关联分析方法，实证 分析江苏省能源消费与经济增长的关系。考察高速的经济增长是否过度依赖大 量的能源投入。二是利用环境库兹涅茨曲线分析工具，实证分析江苏省环境污 染变量与经济增长的关系。考察伴随着高速的经济增长，环境指标是否是持续 恶化的。关于江苏省经济增长稳定性的研究，考虑到现阶段 2008 年国际金融危 机是造成江苏经济增长波动的最主要原因，该部分的稳定性仅指金融危机造成 的波动。此部分也有两个内容：一是通过定性分析和定
3、量分析相结合的方法， 并建立趋势平稳模型，分析 2008 年国际金融危机对江苏经济增长造成的波动。 二是通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法，研究金融危机对江苏对外贸易的 冲击。探讨过度依赖出口的经济增长方式是否会影响经济增长的稳定性。 基于以上的分析和研究，本文得到以下主要结论：一、江苏的经济增长很 大程度上依赖于巨大的能源投入，能源利用效率偏低。二、20052006 年期 间，江苏省部分环境指标开始出现拐点（如工业废水排放量、烟尘排放量、 SO2 排放量），环境问题有改善之趋。但是工业固体废物产生量与工业废气排 放量问题却始终未得到改善。三、金融危机是造成经济增长率波动的重要原 因，2008
4、 年国际金融危机给江苏经济增长的稳定性带来了强烈的冲击，本文预 测 20082010 年（相对于 2007 年）江苏经济增长率有可能下降 3 个左右百分 点，2011 年经济增长有望出现根本好转。四、2008 年国际金融危机给江苏的外 贸业带来了强烈的冲击，出口导向的经济增长方式在短期内被金融危机打破。 过度依赖出口的经济增长将会加大经济体所面临的国际经济风险和政治风险， 威胁着经济增长的稳定性。在文章的最后，本文对江苏省如何保持高速稳定持 续的经济增长提出了若干对策建议。 关键词：经济增长；持续性；稳定性；能源消费；环境污染；金融危机 II ABSTRACT Since the reform
5、 and opening up, Jiangsu as an important coastal province seized the historical opportunity for development and came to the fore in numerious provinces of China. Jiangsu has achieved the rapid economic growth, but at the same time, there are still some serious contradictions and problems in the deve
6、lopment process. Such as the shortage of energy, the environmental pollution and the strong impact to the economic growth of Jiangsu province brought by the 2008 international financial crisis, and so on. If these problems are not properly solved, they will seriously threaten the sustainability and
7、stability of Jiangsu economic growth. In this background, the paper puts “the sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth” as the research topic. It has a very important and practical significance. The research content of the article is as follows: Based on the preliminary analysis of th
8、e sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth, the main factors which affect the sustainability and stability of Jiangsu economic growth are chosen to have empirical studies in detail. On the sustainability of Jiangsu economic growth, this part contains two aspects. First, by using the g
9、ray relational analysis method, the paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu province, to examine whether the rapid economic growth is depended on a lot of energy input or not. Second, by using the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the paper studies the re
10、lationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in Jiangsu, to examine whether environmental indicators are worsening with the rapid economic growth. On the stability of Jiangsu economic growth, considering that the 2008 international financial crisis is the most important reason whic
11、h causes economic fluctuations of Jiangsu province at the present stage， the stability of this part only refers to the fluctuation which is made by the financial crisis. This part also contains two aspects. First, through the method which is a combination of the qualitative and quantitative, and the
12、 establishment of trend- stationary model, this paper analyzes economic fluctuations of Jiangsu province which is caused by the 2008 international financial crisis. Second, by using the methods such as the co-integration test, the granger causality test, the paper studies the influence of the 2008 i
13、nternational financial crisis to the export trade and import trade of Jiangsu province. On the basis of the above analysis and research, the paper gets the following important conclusions: First, the economic growth of Jiangsu province depends on energy consumption highly, and energy efficiency rema
14、ins to be further improved. Second, during the period 2005 2006, some environmental indicators of Jiangsu province have changed in the opposite direction, such as industrial wastewater III emissions, dust emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions. There is the trend that environmental issues will be impro
15、ved. However, industrial solid waste emissions and industrial waste gas emissions have not been improved as yet, the economic growth of Jiangsu is accompanied with a gradual deterioration of some environmental indicators. Third, the international financial crisis is the main reason that leads to the
16、 economic fluctuations. The 2008 international financial crisis has brought a strong impact on the stability of Jiangsu economic growth. The paper predicts that the economic growth rate of Jiangsu may drop about 3 percentage points between 2007 and 2010, and a fundamental turn of the economic growth in Jiangsu perhaps appear in 2011.Fourth, the foreign trade of Jiangsu has been impacted seriously by the 2008 international financial crisis. In the short run, export-oriented economic growth mec
