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1、 密 级： 学校代码：10075 分类号： 学 号：20090099 经济学硕士学位论文 国际热钱流入我国的问题研究 学位申请人： 南翠翠 指 导 教 师 ： 杨 丽 教授 学 位 类 别 ： 经济学硕士 学 科 专 业 ： 金融学 授 予 单 位 ： 河北大学 答 辩 日 期 ： 二一二年六月 Classified Index： CODE：10075 U.D.C： NO：20090099 A Dissertation for the Degree of M. Economics Research of International Hot Money Inflows in China Cand
2、idate: Nan Cuicui Supervisor: Prof. Yang Li Academic Degree Applied for: Master of economic Specialty: Finance University: Hebei University Date of Accomplishment: June, 2012 摘 要 I 摘 要 伴随着经济全球化以及金融一体化的发展，各国间贸易联系日益频繁，这为国际热 钱在各国间频繁流动创造了条件， 同时金融衍生工具的不断创新也为国际热钱以多种渠 道流入其它国家提供了可能。2007年美国爆发次贷危机，随后其演变为席卷全球的
3、金融 海啸，世界各国经济都因此遭受重创。作为新兴的市场经济国家之一，我国率先走出经 济衰退的困境，并一直保持着较高的经济增长速度，同时自2005年汇率改革以来，人民 币对美元汇率持续单边升值，美元利率持续走低，中美利差倒挂现象非常严重。在这样 的大背景下，人民币升值预期非常强烈，越来越多的国际热钱通过各种渠道流入我国市 场进行套利。金融业是我国经济发展的重要行业，因而加深对国际热流入问题的研究以 确保我国金融业健康稳定的发展，以尽可能降低金融危机在我国发生的概率，具有重要 的理论和现实意义。 本文首先介绍了国际热钱流入我国的规模和渠道， 运用残差法对国际热钱的规模进 行估算，测量出截止到201
4、0年底流入我国的国际热钱数量达到1808亿美元，进而分析近 年来国际热钱进入我国的渠道，主要包括经常项目渠道、资本项目渠道、个人渠道和地 下钱庄等灰色渠道。其次对国际热钱流入我国的原因进行分析，指出宽松的国际金融环 境（即金融自由化、金融一体化以及资本证券化不断发展） 、我国宏观经济基本面发展 良好、人民币升值预期、中美利率倒挂、以及我国资本市场发展迅速是国际热钱流入我 国的主要原因。再次，分析国际热钱大量流入对我国经济各个层面产生的不良影响，指 出它干扰我国宏观调控政策的实施，增加宏观调控的难度；削弱我国货币政策的有效性 和独立性，改变我国的货币供给结构，使得我国货币政策实施进退两难；使我国
5、资产价 格急剧上升，严重影响国民经济健康发展；进一步增加我国的外汇储备，给人民币升值 造成巨大的压力。最后，借鉴其它遭受国际热钱冲击国家的监管经验，针对我国具体国 情提出防范国际热钱流入的对策建议，主要包括完善人民币汇率机制、构建更有效的监 控机制、加强防范资本流动风险控制的国际合作、提取无息存款准备金、必要时征收托 宾税以及创新外汇储备管理。 关键词 国际热钱 人民币升值 托宾税 无息存款准备金制度 Abstract II Abstract Along with the development of economic globalization and financial integrati
6、on, the trade ties between countries have become frequent increasingly, and it creates the conditions for international capital flowing among countries frequently, while the continuous innovation of financial derivatives makes it possible for international hot money to flow to other countries in a v
7、ariety of channels. The subprime mortgage crisis of USA outbreaks in 2007, then it makes the evolution of the financial tsunami sweeping the globe, the world economy therefore suffered heavy losses. As one of the emerging market economies, China run out of the predicament of the economic recession f
8、irstly and has maintained a high rate of economic growth since the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB against the U.S. dollar continued unilateral appreciation of U.S. dollar interest rates continuing to fall, Sino-US spreads inversion phenomenon is very serious. In this backdrop, the appreciation o
9、f the renminbi is expected to be very strong, more and more international hot money inflows to China through various channels arbitrage. The financial industry is an important industry in Chinas economic development, and thus deepen the research into the problem of international hot money to ensure
10、a healthy and stable development of Chinas financial industry to the extent possible to reduce the likelihood of financial crisis in China in wide extent, it has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first introduces the size and channels of the international hot money of Chin
11、a, using the residual method to estimate the scale of the international hot money measure until the end of 2010, hot money inflows in China reached 180.8 billion U.S. dollars, and then analyzes the channels of hot money into China in recent years, the main including the gray channels of the current
12、account, capital projects channels, individual channels and underground banking channels. Secondly, to analyze the reasons for the inflow of international hot money in China, pointing out that the main reason includes the development of the international financial environment (financial liberalizati
13、on, financial integration and capital securities of the continuous development), Chinas macroeconomic fundamentals and the development of good, the expectation of RMB appreciation, China and the U.S. interest rate inversion, and the rapid development of Chinas capital market. Once again, analyzing t
14、he negative impact of the international hot money inflowing in Chinas economy at all levels on Abstract III in-depth, that it interferes with the implementation of Chinas macro-control policies, increase the difficulty of macro-control; weaken the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy in
15、 China, change the money supply structure, makes Chinas implementation of monetary policy dilemma; a sharp rise in asset prices in China, seriously affect the healthy development of the of the national economy; further increase Chinas foreign exchange reserves, causing huge pressure to the appreciat
16、ion of the renminbi. Finally, learning from the regulatory experience of other countries suffering from the impact of international hot money, we makes suggestions for Chinas specific national conditions to prevent the international hot money inflows, such as to improve the RMB exchange rate regime, to build a more effective monitoring mechanisms, to strengthen international cooperation to pr
