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1、上海交通大学 硕士学位论文 双边市场中网络外部性估计来自银行卡市场的经验研究 姓名：陈琛 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：产业经济学 指导教师：陈宏民 20090101 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 双边市场中网络外部性估计来自银行卡市场的经验研究 I 双边市场中网络外部性估计 来自银行卡市场的经验研究 摘 要 我国自 1985 年发行第一张银行卡以来，银行卡市场已经历了近 25 年的高速发展。这期间，银行卡从陌生的新事物逐渐为人们所知 晓，现在已成为越来越重要的支付工具。然而我国银行卡市场的发展 并不是一帆风顺的，也经历过一些波折，比如曾经有商户联合抵制银 行卡刷卡。这些问题产生的重要原因是，银行卡市
2、场由于其特殊性， 无法用传统的产业组织理论获得完美的解释， 而现有的产业政策却往 往基于传统的产业规制理念和发展计划，因此难免与实际有些出入。 双边市场理论是看待具有平台产业特征的商业模式的新视角， 是 分析银行卡市场行之有效的工具， 其兴起很大程度上也源自国外对银 行卡市场反垄断规制的需要。国内已有学者从双边市场理论出发，分 析我国银行卡市场的发展情况，且得出不少有益的结论，但通过实证 分析证明我国银行卡市场双边市场特征的研究还非常少。 因此本论文 从我国银行卡产业运作机制出发，基于上海地区银行卡的数据，用计 量经济学的方法证明了我国银行卡市场交叉网络外部性的存在， 并估 计出相应的交叉网络
3、外部性强度。 本论文首先介绍了双边市场基本理论，包括双边市场的商业模 式、双边平台特征、双边市场的界定依据等概念，并对相应的经典文 献做了评述。在第三章中，首先介绍了国际银行卡市场发展的基本情 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 双边市场中网络外部性估计来自银行卡市场的经验研究 II 况，并对我国银行卡市场的发展过程及现状做了详细描述。接着，论 文重点分析我国银行卡市场的运作机制， 并以此为依据得出我国银行 卡市场具有典型的双边市场特征。第四章通过计量经济学方法，以上 海地区银行卡的数据为样本， 从实证分析角度验证了我国银行卡市场 交叉网络外部性的存在，并估计出相应的交叉网络外部性系数。同时 本文还采用
4、格兰杰因果检验的方法判断了我国银行卡市场发展的驱 动因素。 研究结论： （1）我国银行卡市场的运作机制表明，其具有典型的 双边市场结构和明显的双边市场特征。 （2）从“价格结构非中性”判 据出发，我国银行卡市场属于典型的双边市场。 （3）根据“交叉网络 外部性”模型建立实证分析模型，回归结果显示，银行卡市场的双边 用户之间存在明显的交叉网络外部性，且从弹性意义上的来看，发卡 市场对收单市场的交叉网络外部性大于收单市场对发卡市场的交叉 网络外部性；实证分析表明，我国银行卡市场具有明显的双边市场特 征。 （4）发卡量、联网 POS 机具数量、交易金额的格兰杰因果检验表 明，发卡量是整个银行卡市场发
5、展的驱动因素：发卡量增加了交易金 额，进而促进了商户安装联网 POS 机具。 关键词 双边市场，交叉网络外部性，银行卡，格兰杰因果关系检验 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 双边市场中网络外部性估计来自银行卡市场的经验研究 III NETWORK EFFECT OF TWO-SIDED MARKETS EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE PAYMENT CARD INDUSTY ABSTRACT In 1985, China issued the first bank card. Since then, bank card market has gone through nearly 25 y
6、ears of rapid development. During this period, the bank card has gradually transferred from a new thing to an increasingly important means of payment. However, Chinas bank card market is not easy. It also went through some twists and turns. For example, there was once a serious of boycott of the ban
7、k card usage. The reason for these issues is that the bank card market has some uniqueness. The traditional theory of industrial organization isnt a perfect interpretation of the existing industrial policy. Industry regulation and development plans are often based on the traditional concept, so it i
8、s inevitable to make some mistakes. Two-sided market theory is a new perspective on those industries with platform characteristics and new business models. It is a well-established tool for the analysis of the bank card market. Actually, it is rising from anti-trust regulations on foreign bank card
9、markets. Based 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 双边市场中网络外部性估计来自银行卡市场的经验研究 IV on two-sided market theory, mainland scholars have conducted some analysis of Chinas banking card market and drawn lots of useful conclusions, but empirical analysis of Chinas bank card market from two-sided market view is very few. To start fr
10、om Chinas bank card industry operating mechanism, this dissertation, based on the regional bank card data of Shanghai and econometric methods, proves the existence of cross-group externalities in Chinas banking card market, and estimate the strength of cross-group externalities. This dissertation fi
11、rst introduces the basic theory of two-sided market, including two-sided market business model, the characteristics of the platform, and the classical literature in this area. In the third chapter, the author introduced the basic situation of the market, the development of Chinas bank card market an
12、d a detailed description of the status quo. Then, the dissertation focused on analyzing the bank card market operation mechanism and uses it as the basis for the tow-sided market characteristics of the bank card market. Through econometric approach to the data sample of bank cards in Shanghai in cha
13、pter IV, the author verified the existence of cross-group externalities in Chinas bank card market and estimated the corresponding cross-network externality factor. At the same time, this dissertation uses Granger causality test to determine the drivers of Chinas bank card market. Conclusions: (1) T
14、he operating mechanism of Chinas banking card 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 双边市场中网络外部性估计来自银行卡市场的经验研究 V market shows that it has a typical two-sided market structure and obvious characteristics of two-sided market. (2) From the “the non-neutrality of price structure” criteria, Chinas bank card market is typically a t
15、wo-sided market.(3) According to the “cross-group externalities” based empirical model, we found that there are clear cross-group externalities in Chinas bank card market. And the flexibility from card-holders to merchants is stronger than the flexibility from merchants to card-holders. Thus, empiri
16、cal analysis shows that Chinas banking card market has obvious characteristics of the two-sided market. (4) The Granger causality test among number of cards issued, the number of POS, and the transaction value shows that the card-issuing is the key drivers of Chinas bank card market. The increase of card leads to larger transaction value and then push the merchants to install POS. KEY WORDS: two-sided markets, cross-group network externalities, payme
