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1、Growing greyJohn I. Clarke and Andrew CravenThe populationof the world is ageing. The proportion of elderly people in both developed and developing countries is growing. This article considers the statistics and some of the impacts of this demographic phenomenon. It is relevant to anyone studying po
2、pulation change.We live in an ageist society, in which people are discriminated against on the grounds of age. This is curious, because most countries in the world have ageing populations, with a growing proportion of old people who will have an increasing impact upon all aspects of polity, society
3、and economy.1 Who are the old?There are no sharp thresholds separating the old and the very old (sometimes less harshly called elderly and very elderly) from the rest of the population. Internationally, the UN Population Division defines the old as those aged 60 and over (United Nations, 2005). In 2
4、005 there were about 673 million old people according to this definition一10% of the world population In the developing world this was 8% of the population and in the developed world 20%. The rather low UN threshold of 60 makes sense in the developing world, as people have lower life expectancies the
5、re, but in the developed world as a whole those aged 60 and over already outnumber children aged 0-14.The widely cited data sheets of the Population Reference Bureau (Haute, 2005) use the higher threshold of 65 and over as a definition of old age. According to this, about 7% of the world population
6、were old in 2005: only 5% of the developing world, but 15% of the developed world. In the UK we have tended, rather idiosyncratically, to define old people as those of pensionable age-65 and over for men and 60 and over for women. This is despite the fact that women tend to outlive men. At the 2001
7、census 18.4% of the UK population, or 10.8 million people, fell into this category. Fortunately, the gender difference in the definition is being replaced by a general move to 65 and over.2 Who are the very old?Demographers often distinguish between the old and the very old, because they differ cons
8、iderably in their activities, health, medical and housing needs, independence, social integration/segregation and in their contributions to society. Even access to the Internet tends to vary by age. Again, there is no clear cut threshold for the rapidly growing very old population. Seventy five and
9、over is commonly used in the UK and other developed countries, and 85 and over for the increasing numbers of very, very old. However, the UN Population Division provides data for an intermediate age group-the oldest-old -aged 80 and over. In 2005 this group accounted for only 1.3% of the world popul
10、ation, and more than half of them were in the developed world where less than a fifth of the world population was living (United Nations, 2005)3 More old and very old people Ageing of the population is mainly caused by- the worldwide phenomenon of fertility decline, which is bringing about widesprea
11、d but variable reductions in the percentage of young people. It is augmented by increased life expectancy. The number of those aged 60 and over in the world is increasing by about 2% annually, faster than younger age groups. In 2000, there were approximately three times as many people aged 60 and ov
12、er in the world as in 1950; by 2050 they are expected to triple again to reach 22% of the world total, or almost 1.9 billion. Eight out of ten of them will be living in the developing world. Naturally, the percentage of old people ( Figure 1)and their rate of increase varies among countries. In 2005
13、, those aged 60 and over ranged from more than 25% in Japan, Italy and Germany to less than 5% in most tropical African countries and in the oil-rich countries in the Middle East that attract numerous young workers. By 2050, the range is expected to be even wider from more than 40% in Japan( which h
14、as the longest life expectancy in the world), Italy, the Republic of Korea and Slovenia to still less than 5% in a few African countries (Equatorial Guinea, Liberia and Swaziland). Broadly, ageing of population is fastest in countries with rapid fertility decline (e.g., China, the Republic of Korea,
15、 Tunisia, Iran and Algeria), and slowest in the least developed countries of tropical Africa (e.g., Niger, Uganda) that have experienced limited fertility decline. These contrasts between countries are much the same if the 65-year threshold is used. In this ageing process the UK is about average for
16、 a developed country. In 2005, 21% of the UK population were aged 60 and over, and this is expected to rise to 29% in 2050. By this time. some developed countries will have two elderly people for every child.The geographical differences are even more striking among the oldest age groups, whose rates of growth are more rapid still. UN projections indicate that the world population of oldest-old aged 80 and over is increasing by 4.2% annually. It is expected
