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1、1 Michael E. Raynor Deloitte Consulting LLP Distinguished Fellow, Deloitte Research The risk/return tradeoff in strategy has been ignored. The Strategy Paradox Separate making commitments from managing uncertainty. Requisite Uncertainty Scenarios plus strategic options. Strategic Flexibility 2 What
2、is strategy? Cost Quality Source: Adapted from Porter (1996) 3 High Performance Strategy, performance and survival Source: Adapted from Thornhill, White and Raynor (2007) Vision and Commitment LowHigh Low High Low Probability of Failure SurvivorsFailures Number of Firms Margin MarginMargin How firms
3、 (dont) cope with strategic risk Cost Leadership Product Differentiation Stuck in the Middle Margin Margin Survival SurvivalSurvivalSurvival Source: Adapted from Thornhill, White and Raynor (2007) Number of firms Maximize Returns Minimize Risk Maximize Returns 4%9% 1.8%1.2% 2 4 Separate making commi
4、tments from managing uncertainty. Requisite Uncertainty Scenarios plus strategic options. Strategic Flexibility The risk/return tradeoff in strategy has been ignored. The Strategy Paradox 5 Mere mortals need not apply Nobody in the game of football should be called a genius. A genius is some- body l
5、ike Norman Einstein. Joe Theismann Identify strategic uncertainties Create strategic options Exercise or abandon as appropriate 6 Mid-life Crisis Requisite Organization Requisite Uncertainty Organizational Level Board Corporate Business Unit or Operating Division Line or Function Strategic balance T
6、ime Horizon 10 yrs to 5 10 yrs 2 5 yrs 3 mos. 1 yr AbsoluteRelative 20 10 5 1 Uncertainty Commitment Source: Adapted from Jaques (1979) Option Commitment Plan Source of Value 7 Constraints define OpCo objectives Growth Option Mission Impossible Hobby Farm Strategic Option Financial Constraints L H S
7、trategic Constraints LH What is that? 8 Newspapers and online publishing Late 90sInternet Online Services Mid-2000s Financial Constraints L H Strategic Constraints LH A new mechanism of strategic change 9 Whipping the horses.or releasing the doves? 10 Scenarios plus strategic options. Strategic Flex
8、ibility The risk/return tradeoff in strategy has been ignored. The Strategy Paradox Separate making commitments from managing uncertainty. Requisite Uncertainty Strategic Flexibility: Adaptable commitment Anticipate Identify drivers of change Define the range of possible futures Determine which are
9、truly plausible Formulate Develop an optimal strategy for each scenario Compare optimal strategies to define “core” and “contingent” elements Accumulate Acquire those capabilities needed to implement the core strategy Take options on capabilities needed for contingent strategies Operate Execute the
10、core strategy Monitor the environment Exercise or abandon options as appropriate Prepare for a future you cannot predict 11 Scenarios: Defining the “possibility space” Regulation Macro-economy Scenarios are NOT predictions Identify what is and isnt likely Each vertex could be a plausible scenario Ea
11、ch vertex could be a scenario Four to six typically do the job Strategic Flexibility: Adaptable commitment Anticipate Identify drivers of change Define the range of possible futures Determine which are truly plausible Formulate Develop an optimal strategy for each scenario Compare optimal strategies
12、 to define “core” and “contingent” elements Accumulate Acquire those capabilities needed to implement the core strategy Take options on capabilities needed for contingent strategies Operate Execute the core strategy Monitor the environment Exercise or abandon options as appropriate Prepare for a fut
13、ure you cannot predict 12 Scenarios imply the strategies you might need Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Today Core CompetencyGame TheoryFive ForcesDisruption Optimal strategies Core elements Contingent elements The limits of scenario-based planning Scenario: Oil Crunch Contingency: Econo
14、-Box Response time: Five years When do you deploy the contingent elements? When you know you need them What if they take time to develop and deploy? Can you respond fast enough? The problems with “agility” still remain 13 Strategic Flexibility: Adaptable commitment Anticipate Identify drivers of cha
15、nge Define the range of possible futures Determine which are truly plausible Formulate Develop an optimal strategy for each scenario Compare optimal strategies to define “core” and “contingent” elements Accumulate Acquire those capabilities needed to implement the core strategy Take options on capab
16、ilities needed for contingent strategies Operate Execute the core strategy Monitor the environment Exercise or abandon options as appropriate Prepare for a future you cannot predict Utility C: Scenarios Utility D: Strategic Flexibility Appropriateness of investment Assume on-line energy sales will take off in the next several years Strategic options on contingent elements Utility A: Classic strategy e 2007 Profit potential 2020 Example
