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1、Positioning Brazil for biofuels success Positioning Brazil for biofuels success The country now produces ethanol more cheaply than anywhere else on Earth, but that may not be true for long. Vicente Assis, Heinz-Peter Elstrodt, and Claudio F. C. Silva As higher oil prices drive global demand for biof
2、uels, Brazils ethanol industryincluding both local and multinational companiesseems well positioned for profitable growth. The country has the worlds lowest production costs for ethanol, is its leading global exporter, and has plenty of available land to increase production. But the forces unleashed
3、 by surging demand will challenge the industry. A McKinsey study shows that ramping up export capacity will require as much as $100 billion in new investment, depending on international demand. Brazils fragmented network of ethanol producers and limited distribution infrastructure will struggle to k
4、eep pace. Meanwhile, the growth prospects for biofuels are generating worldwide research efforts that seem likely to yield technologies that will lower the cost of production in other countries, making them more competitive with Brazil. In this uncer- tain environment, industry participants will hav
5、e tough decisions to make about where, when, and how much to invest. Annual worldwide ethanol exports now total 6.5 billion liters (about 1.7 bil- lion gallons), but our research suggests that by 2020 they could reach 50 billion to 200 billion liters, depending on crude-oil prices and the evolution
6、The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 special edition: Shaping a new agenda for Latin America2 of regulatory regimes around the globe. Lets say that Brazil will provide 160 billion litersall (or nearly all) of the worlds ethanol exportsin 2020. That is an extreme assumption, but an economically rational one i
7、f the country could leverage the strength of its sugarcane industry, the worlds largest, to defend its position as the lowest-cost producer (Exhibit 1). If companies want to play a role in Brazils biofuel boom, they will have to boost their current output substantially. At present, Brazils annual et
8、hanol output is nearly 17 billion liters, roughly 14 billion of them consumed domestically. Productivity gains from better irrigation and fertilization and from the mechanization of harvests should raise output by 30 percent over the next 15 years. The rest must come from additional investments in l
9、and, distribution infrastructure, and above all, mills. In such a scenario, players in Brazils ethanol industry would need to make the following investments: 1. Land. Brazil currently has 6 million hectares of sugarcane under cultivation. Increasing ethanol production to supply the countrys domes- t
10、ic needs (roughly 30 billion liters) and to meet the export target of 160 billion liters would require a further 11 million hectares to be brought onstream by 2020. In fact, as many as 24 million additional hectares of land could realistically be available for sugarcane production. In that case, eve
11、n the total of 30 million hectares for sugarcane would equal just 3.5 percent of Brazils landmass (Exhibit 2). Although convert- ing some pastureland to sugarcane cropland implies that less land will be available for cattle ranching, that wouldnt affect overall food produc- tion significantly. Howev
12、er, lets say that only a further 11 million hectares come onstream for sugarcane. We project that Brazilian sugar companies, or millers, will in all likelihood directly own 3.3 million of them30 percentat a total cost of $8 billion. The remainder will Article at a glance As higher oil prices drive g
13、lobal demand for biofuels, Brazils well-established ethanol industryincluding both local and multinational companiesseems well positioned for profitable growth. Although annual global ethanol exports now total only about 6.5 billion liters, McKinsey research suggests that by 2020 they could reach 50
14、 billion to 200 billion liters. To supply that demand, Brazils companies will have to ramp up their export capacity significantly, which would require investments of as much as $100 bil- lion in land, distribution infrastructure, and new mills. Related articles on “A cost curve for greenhouse gas re
15、duction,” 2007 Number 1 “Making the most of the worlds energy resources,” 2007 Number 1 “What is the business of business?” 2005 Number 3 Positioning Brazil for biofuels success Q1a 2007 Brazil biofuels Exhibit 1 of 3 Glance: To make ethanol, Brazil uses sugarcane as the raw materialthe main differe
16、ntiator in production costs. e x h i b i t 1 The lowest production cost Ethanol production cost,12006, $ per liter 1Excluding any subsidies; assumes current technology. 2Figures do not sum to total, because of rounding. Source: Expert interviews; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); SRI; McKinsey analysis Conversion Raw materials Sugarcane (Brazil) 0.23 0.39 0.52 Corn2 (United States) Wheat (Europe) 0.18 0.05 0.25 0.13 0.34 0.18 Q1a 2007 B
