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1、Public Organization Review: A Global Journal 3: 339372 (2003) # 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Manufactured in The Netherlands. Chaos and Transformation Theories: A Theoretical Analysis with Implications for Organization Theory and Public Management ALI FARAZMANDafarazmafau.edu School of Public Ad
2、ministration, Florida Atlantic University, 111 E Las Olas Boulevard, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301 Key words:chaos and transformation theories, change, continuity, and complexity theory, bifurcation, systems design, world systems design, organization theory, organizational change and adaptation, public
3、management Abstract Chaos and transformation theories have emerged as new currencies in social sciences in general and in systems design and management, and in futuristic studies in particular. This article analyzes chaos and transformation theories in historical and contemporary perspectives, their
4、 contributions to social science in general, and organization theory and public management in particular. The notions of chaos and order, change and continuity, and uncertainty and certainty are analyzed along with the growing realization of complexity and non-linear dynamic features of modern organ
5、izations and the hard reality of a constant necessity to acquire new knowledge and learn to manage organizations with fl exibility and innovation. Finally, the article addresses some of the limitations of chaos theory and outlines a number of implications for organization theory and public managemen
6、t in the age of globalization. Introduction Chaos and transformation theories have emerged as new currencies in the social sciences in general and in systems analysis and futuristic studies in particular. However, the relevance and utility of chaos and transformation theories to organization theory
7、are still being developed, with the present analysis offering a modest contribution. These theories also have signifi cant implications for governance, administration, environment, and global studies. Some social scientists have elevated the status of chaos theory to a new science (Gleick, 1987; Whe
8、atley, 1999; Uri, 1995), telling us that we live in a complex world full of uncertainties, randomness, and unpredictable events that can scramble plans and drive systems, including organizations, into chaos and catastrophic breakdown. Crises, surprises, sudden and rapid changes, confusions, and thin
9、gs out of control prevail in our world and characterize modern organizations and all complex systems; leaders and managers must be prepared to deal with such chaotic phenomena and manage complex organizations accordingly. A key feature of paradigmatic chaos is what Warren Bennis (1967) calls tempora
10、ry society, Peter Drucker (1969) calls the age of discontinuity, and Charles Handy (1997, 1998) calls the age of unreason and beyond certainty in which we must be prepared to mange our public and private lives by bold imagination, by thinking the unlikely and doing the unreasonable, and with a hungr
11、y spirit beyond capitalism pursue our quest for purpose in the modern world (Handy, 1999). Similarly, a fast growing monumental body of literature on globalization explains patterns of chaotic changes that seem to surprise nation- states, governments, policy-makers, and public administrators. For ex
12、ample, Huntington (1996) speaks of clash of civilizations, Fukuyama (1992) predicts the end of history and of last man due to the collapse of the Soviet Union leading him to conclude the end of any social system capable of challenging capitalism, and Rifkin (1996) speaks of the end of work, or biosp
13、here and cyberpolitics (see Farazmand, 1999a for a detailed treatment of globalization and its implications for public administration). Also, Kaufman (1985) reminds us of the importance of time, chance, and organizations facing natural selection in a peril environment, and Weick (1995) prescribes or
14、ganizational sense-making. Similarly, Murphy (1996) suggests chaos theory as a model for managing crises, Rosser (2000) proposes a general theory of economic discontinuities based on the paired theories of catastrophe and chaos to manage economic crises, and Argyris (1982) offers learning organizati
15、ons as a solution to solve unpredictable problems, and to meet the challenges and uncertainties of the increasingly complex environment. These warning expressions indicate, both implicitly and explicitly, that current world crises, including many organizational problems, can no longer be solved or m
16、anaged through traditional approaches and methods; they require new ways of thinking and solutions, nonlinear complex models of action, and chaotic models to deal with chaotic situations. Combine small-scale chaotic events with large scalecatastrophicsituationsorbreakdowns,we fi ndourselveschaotic hysteresis, a concept originated by Abraham and Shaw (1987) and developed by economist Tonu Puu (1990, 1997). Crises scramble plans and for
