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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Hong Kong Banking / Finance Banks Industry Chinese banks - 2018 Outlook Date 2 January 2018 Recommendation Change Positioning in policy tightening and reforming Another year of divergence among banks; still prefer retail-oriented banks _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
2、 Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their i
3、nvestment decision. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDIN SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
4、. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Hans Fan, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6353 hans.fan Jacky Zuo, CFA Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6255 jacky.zuo Edward Du Research Associate (+852 ) 2203 6185 edward.du Key Changes Company Target Price Rating 1398.HK 6.52 to 7.52(HKD) - 601398.SS 5.98 to 6.50(CNY) - 6019
5、39.SS 7.04 to 7.67(CNY) - 601288.SS 3.75 to 4.09(CNY) - 601988.SS 4.38 to 4.54(CNY) - 601328.SS 5.98 to 6.30(CNY) - 600036.SS 24.06 to 27.13(CNY) - 601998.SS 4.28 to 4.56(CNY) - 600016.SS 7.15 to 7.51(CNY) - 600000.SS 12.75 to 13.61(CNY) - 601166.SS 14.92 to 16.38(CNY) - 601818.SS 2.97 to 3.22(CNY)
6、- 000001.SZ 9.48 to 10.89(CNY) - 601169.SS 9.34 to 9.69(CNY) - 601009.SS 5.65 to 6.21(CNY) - 002142.SZ 9.37 to 10.81(CNY) - 0939.HK 7.68 to 8.87(HKD) - 1288.HK 4.10 to 4.73(HKD) - 3988.HK 4.78 to 5.25(HKD) - 3328.HK 6.53 to 7.29(HKD) - 3968.HK 26.27 to 31.38(HKD) - 1988.HK 7.80 to 8.68(HKD) - 0998.H
7、K 4.67 to 5.28(HKD) - 6818.HK 3.24 to 3.72(HKD) Sell to Hold 3618.HK 6.05 to 7.00(HKD) Hold to Buy 3698.HK 3.14 to 3.49(HKD) - 1963.HK 5.65 to 6.50(HKD) Sell to Hold Source: Deutsche Bank Top picks Bank of China (3988.HK),HKD3.84 Buy Agri. Bank of China (1288.HK),HKD3.64 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Ch
8、ina has made containing financial risks a top priority. Financial deleveraging may last longer than expected, with higher market rates and more coordinated but tighter regulations. This may lead to moderate credit growth but slower leverage build-up and hence, less financial stability risk. On the b
9、anks asset side, we expect supply-side reform will be strictly followed and SOE reform may accelerate, leading to improving corporate financial health. Thus, we stay positive on the Chinese bank sector. We expect wider divergence between retail banks (big-4/CMB/CRCB) and the rest, as funding strengt
10、h remains the key differentiating factor; upgrading CRCB to Buy top picks: BOC earnings forecasts, valuation, catalysts and risks In 2017, retail banks (big-4/CMB/CRCB) have outperformed other banks by 28ppt. We re-rate further on stabilizing ROE. We forecast 6.5%/8.5% yoy growth in 2018/19 vs. 4.3%
11、 yoy in 2017E. Reflecting the rollover of book value into 2018E and exchange-rate adjustment, we lift TPs by 15%/8% for H/A- share banks. We upgrade CRCB to Buy and CEB-H and BOCQ to Hold. Our pecking order is: BOC/ABC/CCB/ICBC/CRCB. Catalysts include results: intro- duction of CCyB and D-SIB and So
12、uthbound inflow. For smaller banks, we might turn positive if the PBOC starts loosening. Upside risks: removal or softened GDP target and more aggressive SOE reforms. Downside risks: disorderly deleveraging and property price correction. This report includes changes to our ratings and target prices
13、for several companies under coverage; see above right and page 33. This report includes changes to our ratings and target prices for several companies under coverage; see above right and page 33. Distributed on: 02/01/2018 03:36:30 GMT 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa 2 January 2018 Banks Chinese banks - 2018 Outlo
14、ok Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Financial deleveraging: market rate hikes, new committee, tighter regulations Containing financial risks at top of governments agenda China has de-emphasized the growth target and made containing financial risks a top priority. The Central Economic Work Conferenc
15、e, concluded on 20 December 2017, has listed three policy priorities in 2018-2020: containing and resolving major financial risks, poverty reduction and environmental protection. This is consistent with signals from the 19th party congress, where policymakers emphasized growth quality over quantity.
16、 The tighter policy bias is warranted by the still-elevated leverage in Chinas financial sector and real economy. In the financial sector, M2 balance accounts for 207% of GDP currently, and the credit-to-deposit ratio in the China banking system stands at 118% (Figure 1). In the real economy, we estimate that total non-financial sector debt made up 276% of GDP as of Sept
