《德意志银行-中国-消费者-中国大众消费：2017年上半年简讯和下半年及2018年展望-20170904-Greater China Consumer：1H17 results wrap~up and 2H17 2018 outlook-Deutsche Bank》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《德意志银行-中国-消费者-中国大众消费：2017年上半年简讯和下半年及2018年展望-20170904-Greater China Consumer：1H17 results wrap~up and 2H17 2018 outlook-Deutsche Bank（28页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Consumer Industry Greater China Consumer Date 4 September 2017 Industry Update 1H17 results wrap-up and 2H17/2018 outlook Top Buys: Eclat, Feng Tay, Moutai, Dali and Samsonite _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with comp
2、anies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICAT
3、IONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Anne Ling Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6177 anne.ling Mark Yuan Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6181 mark.yuan John Chou Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6196 john.chou Top picks Eclat Textile (1476.TW),TWD376.00 Buy Feng Tay (9910.TW),TWD142.00 Buy Kw
4、eichow Moutai (600519.SS),CNY495.20 Buy Dali Foods (3799.HK),HKD5.19 Buy Samsonite International S.A (1910.HK),HKD32.55 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank 1H17s results show that the market is trending better, with key themes, such as premiumization, health and leisure, and the wealth effect, playing an impo
5、rtant role in sales growth. Corporates are also active in improving their business structures via a leaner supply chain or integration, especially those facing higher raw material costs. Into 2H17/2018, we believe kids/family and a rise in consumer credit will be additional themes. We like Eclat/Fen
6、g Tay (Nike supply chain theme), Moutai (strong demand + restocking), Dali (success in new products) and Samsonite (synergy and integration benefit from Tumi). Retaining Sell on Tingyi (new products yet to make an impact, given its size). 13 companies beat DB/market estimates Hengan/H channel invent
7、ory piling up; intense competition; product misses. Upside risks: a greater-than-expected rise in SSSg; higher operating leverage; weaker-than- expected input costs. Distributed on: 03/09/2017 19:18:26 GMT 0bed7b6cf11c 每日免费获取报告 1、每日微信群内分享5+最新重磅报告； 2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报； 3、每周分享经济学人 4、每月汇总500+份当月重磅报告 （增值
8、服务） 扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复：研究报告 加入“起点财经”微信群。 4 September 2017 Consumer Greater China Consumer Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 1H17 results In general, better EBIT and sales growth for most players Overall, three quarters of the companies under our coverage experienced yoy EBIT growth due to: 1) market rec
9、overy (less discounting/less inventory), 2) cost-saving in opex (offsetting GPM decline), and 3) a low base in 1H16. While we always say there is limited top line growth, in fact half of the companies saw 10%+ sales growth in 1H17 due to: 1) acquisitions (e.g., white goods, Samsonite), 2) an extreme
10、ly low base (Tingyi and H closing prices as of 31 August 2017 Note: Target price and share price are in reporting currency 4 September 2017 Consumer Greater China Consumer Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Figure 2: Interim (1H17) results table (Deutsche Bank vs. actual results vs. market forecast)
11、SalesEBITNet profitSalesEBIT Net profit Sales Net profit SalesNet profit Results announced (sorted by alphabetical order) 600597.SSBright DairyHold14.0013.0031-DecICNY10,84268034510,923682336-1%3%10,842 345 0506.HKChina FoodsBuy4.504.1631-DecIHKD16,3421,00654215,6281,7787565%-28%16,342 1,006 2319.HK
12、China Mengniu DairyBuy18.2018.2831-DecICNY29,4381,9181,18429,4661,8062,5440%-53%29,356 1,103 1117.HKChina Modern DiaryHold1.701.5431-DecICNY2,021303(520)2,344165(666)-14%-22%2,235 (520) 0291.HKCRBHold17.5019.6431-DecICNY16,2781,8261,36915,7741,6871,1703%17%16,209 1,413 3799.HKDali FoodsBuy5.805.2131
13、-DecICNY9,5172,2201,7429,8892,2381,755-4%-1%9,701 1,731 1476.TWEclat TextileBuy465.00370.0031-DecITWD11,0881,9411,17011,0891,7611,0610%10%11,053 1,080 9910.TWFeng TayBuy170.00143.0031-DecITWD27,6572,4621,92327,6632,4621,9230%0%27,6381,857 9921.TWGaint Sell125.00152.5031-DecITWD26,8871,8951,30326,941
14、1,6621,1940%9%28,064 1,308 0709.HKGiordanoBuy4.914.6431-DecIHKD2,6702982332,6183282452%-5%2,670 233 0493.HKGomeHold0.850.8231-DecICNY39,648484na38,073 4391224%na39,648 na 000651.SZGreeBuy44.4038.6531-DecICNY61,8239,2789,22470,60411,62811,117-12%-17%61,586 8,554 600519.SSKweichow MoutaiBuy550.00491.0
15、031-DecICNY20,39314,86511,05125,49316,12312,044-20%-8%23,785 11,015 1044.HKHenganHold60.1065.4031-DecICNY9,8292,4521,7129,5632,6171,8543%-8%9,995 1,605 1112.HKH closing prices as of 31 August 2017 Note: Target price and share price are in reporting currency 4 September 2017 Consumer Greater China Consumer Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 5 What do we think of 1H17 results? And the outlook? Overall Of the 40 companies under our coverage that announced 2Q or 1H17 results, 13 beat DB/market estimates and nine missed. Although Eclat and Samsonites 1H missed, we maintain our bullish view. Eclats pr
