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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research North America United States Industrials Chemicals/Commodity Periodical Chemicals Scorecard Date 6 September 2017 August Scorecard Eastman and Air Products outperformed in August _ Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies
2、covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS A
3、RE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. David Begleiter Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-5473 david.begleiter Katherine Griffin Research Associate (+1) 212 250-7265 katherine-a.griffin David Huang Research Associate (+1) 904 520-5307 david-a.huang Top picks Eastman Chemical (EMN.N),USD85.27 Buy
4、Trinseo (TSE.N),USD67.95 Buy Ashland (ASH.N),USD61.41 Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Valuation 2) forward EV/EBITDA multiples (where leverage diverges from that of peers, also vs historical averages); 3)our calculation of cash return on cash invested and the strong correlation (R270%) we have found betwe
5、en chemical sector valuations and returns on capital. Risks to our target prices being achieved include rises in energy, raw materials, n-t interest rates or sharp improvement in end- market demand. US Chemicals rose 0.6% in August vs S include dividends Figure 2: Ranking by 3-month performance (Jun
6、e, 2017- August, 2017) 36.4% 25.5% 15.8% 15.0% 14.6% 13.6% 12.6% 11.7% 10.5% 9.1% 8.2% 6.8% 5.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (0.8%) (1.5%) (2.9%) (5.7%) (6.4%) (50%) (30%) (10%) 10% 30% 50% TROX WLK KRO FOE FMC LYB CE HUN OLN DOW EMN DD CMP Chemicals SH
7、LM TSE ALB SHW S include dividends 6 September 2017 Chemicals/Commodity Chemicals Scorecard Page4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 3: Ranking by 6-month performance (March, 2017- August, 2017) 54.3% 50.2% 37.6% 21.9% 20.2% 18.7% 15.2% 13.6% 12.1% 10.5% 9.8% 9.3% 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 5.9% 5.0
8、% 4.8% 4.6% 3.9% 2.7% 2.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% (1.9%) (2.3%) (5.9%) (7.0%) (8.1%) (8.7%) (10.0%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% KRO FMC FOE WLK TROX HUN ALB GRA PX SHW CE DOW EMN ECL POL DD Chemicals ASH OLN APD S includes dividends Figure 4: Ranking by 12-month performance 143.9% 128.6% 85.1
9、% 56.6% 53.1% 52.6% 49.9% 47.0% 44.5% 29.9% 28.6% 25.7% 22.8% 22.4% 20.8% 18.1% 17.8% 13.9% 12.1% 10.5% 10.3% 9.5% 8.9% 8.1% 6.9% 6.4% 3.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% (6.5%) (8.0%) (8.0%) (13.0%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) (0%) 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% KRO TROX FMC HUN CE OLN WLK ALB FOE EMN DOW Chemica
10、ls DD SHLM SHW LYB TSE S includes dividends 6 September 2017 Chemicals/Commodity Chemicals Scorecard Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page5 Figure 5: Ranking by Year-to-Date performance 100.7% 75.3% 52.4% 39.3% 35.1% 34.5% 26.2% 25.8% 23.2% 16.5% 14.6% 14.5% 14.3% 13.7% 12.8% 12.2% 11.4% 10.6% 10.6% 10
11、.4% 10.1% 8.5% 7.3% 6.5% 5.6% 4.2% 3.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% (9.0%) (13.0%) (14.7%) (43.2%) (55%) (45%) (35%) (25%) (15%) (5%) 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95% 105% 115% TROX KRO FMC HUN ALB FOE SHW OLN CE DOW EMN Chemicals DD SHLM TSE PX MON WLKP WLK S includes dividends 6 September 2017 Chemicals/
12、Commodity Chemicals Scorecard Page6 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 6: Ranking by % of Positive recommendation on total no. of recommendations 100% 100% 100% 78% 67% 67%67% 67% 65% 63%61% 59% 55% 53% 53% 50%50% 50% 47% 38% 35% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% OMN-US FOE-US DOW-US ASH-US EMN-US
13、WLK-US CBT-US APD-US ALB-US CE-US ECL-US PPG-US DD-US PX-US AXTA-US POT-US FUL-US CMP-US MON-US MMM-US LYB-US MOS-US Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset; Figure 7: Chemicals sector index 10-year performance (January 1999-Present) 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 Jan/95 Oct/95 Jul/96 Apr/97 Jan/98 Oct/98 Ju
14、l/99 Apr/00 Jan/01 Oct/01 Jul/02 Apr/03 Jan/04 Oct/04 Jul/05 Apr/06 Jan/07 Oct/07 Jul/08 Apr/09 Jan/10 Oct/10 Jul/11 Apr/12 Jan/13 Oct/13 Jul/14 Apr/15 Jan/16 Oct/16 Jul/17 Chemicals Indices (Feb 1988 = 100) Log Scale S based on month-end share price Figure 12: Ranking by 2018E EV/EBITDA 13.4 13.0 1
15、2.5 12.3 11.1 10.5 10.2 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.3 6.5 6.3 5.4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 ALB MON DD PX APD PPG AXTA FUL CE CMP DOW POL FOE EMN CBT SHLM OMN LYB KRO TSE Source: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. estimates and company information; based on month-end share price 6 Septemb
16、er 2017 Chemicals/Commodity Chemicals Scorecard Page10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Figure 13: Ranking by 2017E free cash flow yield (defined as free cash flow per share divided by share price) 7.9% 7.3% 7.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% EMN LYB CE CBT AXTA OMN PPG FUL FOE DOW PX APD CMP MON KRO Source: Deutsche Bank S
