《德意志银行-中国-石油天然气行业-Harvey的影响支撑化工业利差买入中石油及中石油H股-20170905-Harvey impact supports chemical spreads；Buy on Sinopec and SPC-H-DeutscheBank》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《德意志银行-中国-石油天然气行业-Harvey的影响支撑化工业利差买入中石油及中石油H股-20170905-Harvey impact supports chemical spreads；Buy on Sinopec and SPC-H-DeutscheBank（15页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、5 September 2017 Oil Buy on Sinopec and SPC-H Major US ethylene capacity offl ine, providing near-term support on spreads Hurricane Harvey has had a signifi cant impact on US Gulf Coast chemical operations. According to Bloomberg news on September 1, it appears that as much as 61% of US ethylene cap
2、acity (US total ethylene capacity: c.25mntpa) has been closed down, which equals c.9.5% of global capacity. With dozens of other olefi n, chlor-alkali and derivative plants offl ine as well, there is substantial impact on derivative products and other hydrocarbon chain products, such as HDPE and But
3、adiene, for which the offl ine capacity represents 10.5% and 8.4% of global capacity, respectively. We believe this provides support for Asian petrochemical spreads and we view Sinopec (386 HK) and SPC-H (338 HK) as key benefi ciaries of bulk chemical spreads strengthening. Asian spreads have been s
4、trengthening In Asia, spot ethylene/propylene prices are not reacting much to the outages in the US; as of September 1 they only edged up by c.1% WoW, with spreads improving by 2%/3% WoW, respectively. However, the downstream spreads have gone up by 4%/5% for PE/PP WoW. If current spreads are sustai
5、ned until quarter end, Asia ethylene, propylene, PE, and PP spreads will have improved by 12%, 12%, 2%, and 7% QoQ, respectively. Valuation: We value Sinopec by using a sum- of-the parts valuation (DCF for E Note: Bloomberg consensus estimates for non-rated (NR) companies. Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
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