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1、 North America Equity Research 16 February 2018 Equity Ratings and Price Targets Mkt CapRatingPrice Target CompanyTicker($ mn)Price ($)CurPrevCurPrev Coca-ColaKO US191,659.8044.98Nn/c49.00n/c PepsiCoPEP US159,260.00111.06OWn/c124.00n/c Constellation BrandsSTZ US44,148.29219.45OWn/c250.00n/c The Proc
2、ter (2) the use of extra cash from tax reform; (3) EM vs. DM performance for multinationals with the weakening dollar but also increased local competition; and (4) commodity and transportation cost pressures. Seven companies in our coverage will present (see side table). Included in the report are d
3、etailed CAGNY previews for each company as well as tables reflecting the latest guidance for each. Coca-Cola (N). Similar to the tone from KOs Analyst Day in November as well as CAGNY a year ago, we would expect CEO James Quincey to talk about The Coca-Cola Company becoming a total beverage company
4、and plans to accelerate top-line growth. In our conversations with investors, we think some skepticism remains that KO will be able to deliver at the top of its +4-6% long- term organic revenue target given the companys product mix still skews toward the sparkling category (particularly with initial
5、 organic revenue guidance of +4% for 2018). We would expect Mr. Quincey to highlight the recent success of product innovations (Coke Zero, new Diet Coke flavors), plans for future innovation, and potential categories of interest. With the bottler refranchising in the background, we expect CFO Kathy
6、Wallers portion of the presentation to be on the companys new asset light operating model as well as helping investors bridge to the companys 2020 OPM target of 35%+. In light of the recent tax reform and the extensive commentary today on cash repatriation and uses of tax savings, we would expect Ms
7、. Waller to discuss priorities for cash use going forward. Table 1: Covered *Cos. Presenting KO20-Feb10:00am PEP 21-Feb2:00pm STZ 21-Feb3:00pm PG22-Feb9:00am NWL 22-Feb1:00pm CL23-Feb8:00am CHD 23-Feb10:00am Source: J.P. Morgan and CAGNY website. * A more comprehensive schedule is included on page 5
8、 of this note. Completed 16 Feb 2018 06:17 PM EST Disseminated 16 Feb 2018 06:17 PM EST 2 North America Equity Research 16 February 2018 Andrea Teixeira, CFA (1-212) 622-6735 andrea.f.teixeira PepsiCo (OW). With the President and COO of Frito Lay North America, Mr. Vivek Sankaran, presenting, we wou
9、ld expect the presentation to focus on the future of Pepsis core snack portfolio. We would expect the presentation to be centered on the recent innovation success around core brands as well as plans for the future, particularly with Pepsis 2025 aspirations in mind. Given the shift in retail landscap
10、e and e-commerce becoming more relevant, we would hope to gain greater clarity on how Pepsi plans to address the future of this channel, particularly from a packaging and digital perspective. In our view, investors primary concern remains the ability of the companys Beverage business to improve, but
11、 we think focusing on the strength of the Frito-Lay business will remind investors how Pepsi can still deliver on its long-term organic revenue and EPS algorithm in the future. Constellation Brands (OW). Similar to the format of the Back to School conference in September, we would expect Chief Opera
12、ting Officer and newly promoted President Bill Newlands to discuss the operating strategy across the companys beer, wine, and spirits portfolios. As promised on the earnings call in early January, CFO Mr. David Klein will provide more concentrated guidance for the companys new marginal tax rate, whi
13、ch the company hinted could be around 20% (see our Jan 5 note). Given that Mr. Klein provided some color on QTD beer trends during CAGNY a year ago, we think investors will be listening for any commentary regarding top-line growth next week. In the latest Nielsen scanner data, we have seen top-line
14、trends accelerate for both the companys beer (+14.1% in the latest four-week period) and wine/spirits (+5.7% in latest four-week period) divisions. Procter KO US) FYE Dec2016A2017A2018E2019E EPS Reported ($) Q1 (Mar)0.450.430.450.48 Q2 (Jun)0.600.590.620.67 Q3 (Sep)0.490.500.570.61 Q4 (Dec)0.370.390
15、.440.48 FY1.911.922.082.24 Bloomberg EPS FY ($)1.911.912.102.23 Adjusted P/E FY 23.523.421.720.0 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Date: Tuesday, February 20 Time: 10 AM EST Presenters: James Quincey (President and CEO) and Kathy Waller (CFO) Investor Sentiment Heading into CAG
16、NY We believe investors came away initially very encouraged with the companys Q417 results, particularly around the +4% organic revenue growth (+6% using concentrate shipments). Although the companys guidance put consensus heading into the print at the high end, we believe that in the backdrop of the current operating environment the companys +4% organic revenue target for 2018 is impressive. However, we do think there is still a contingent of investors that remains s
