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1、A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States MARCH 2018 A REPORT OF THE CSIS TECHNOLOGY POLICY PROGRAM AUTHORS William A. Carter Emma Kinnucan Josh Elliot CONTRIBUTORS William Crumpler Kirsten Lloyd MARCH 2018 A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States AUTHORS W
2、illiam A. Carter Emma Kinnucan Josh Elliot CONTRIBUTORS William Crumpler Kirsten Lloyd A Report of the CSIS TECHNOLOGY POLICY PROGRAM A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States II About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked t
3、o develop solutions to the worlds greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help de- cisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Centers 220 full-t
4、ime staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American
5、 prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the worlds preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration
6、. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in Novem- ber 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Centers president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed h
7、ere- in should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Acknowledgments This report is coauthored and made possible by the generous support of Booz Al- len Hamilton Inc. Booz Allen is a global firm of 24,225 exceptional people driven to excel, do right, and realize positive change on behal
8、f of their clients. For more than 100 years, Booz Allen has brought bold thinking to clients spanning defense to health and international development. The firms core capabilities are in consult- ing, analytics, digital solutions, engineering, and cyber. Booz Allen is also a leading developer and imp
9、lementer of machine intelligence (MI) technologies. 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic its complexity will make it difficult to understand and remediate failures after the fact. Ill-advised applications of MI and technical mistakes h
10、ave already disrupted financial markets, eroded public trust, and threatened our nation- al security (see previous page). Even with advanced planning, problems with the technology cannot be fully avoided. In the next decade, we will likely see MI eliminate certain jobs, manipulate our personal infor
11、mation, limit our insight into how organizations make decisions, and reduce equity in parts of society. If not properly controlled, the technology holds the potential to exacerbate exist- ing economic polarization, disenfran- chisement, and social fragmentation. How policymakers prepare for MIs im-
12、pact today will determine whether the technologys benefits ultimately out- weigh its risks. The United States allies and competitors recognize this, and are vying to shape the norms and values that dictate MIs use. China announced its national artificial intelligence (AI) strat- egy in the summer of
13、 2017, highlighting how it could apply the technology to track people on closed-circuit cameras, censor the internet, and predict crimes. In the fall of 2017, Russian president Vladimir Putin emphasized the strategic importance of MI in a speech to Russian schoolchildren. Canada, France, and the Uni
14、ted Kingdom have each announced national-level strategies for enhancing their positions in the technologys devel- opment and ensuring its use preserves their norms around privacy, equity, and transparency. TO manage the social, geopoliti- cal, and economic outcomes of MI for Americans and the world,
15、 the United States must also create a vision and strategy for the future of intelligent machines. We must invest in the re- search and development (R its second largest, for a World War II battle.” Watson guessed the answer to be Toronto, Canada. Unfortunately, the category was “U.S. Cities.” The sy
16、stem got the answer wrong because it was unable to integrate the broader context IBMs Watson competing in a game of Jeopardy. photo by vincentlte 9 “Tasks for MI systems are often framed in narrow contexts. . . . While machines may exhibit stellar performance on a certain task, performance may degrade dramatically if the task is modified even slightly. For example, a human who can read Chinese characters would likely understand Chinese speech, know something ab
