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1、 1 Wage Competitiveness in Luxembourg. Stefan Collignon and Piero Esposito A Study engaged by the Government of the Grand Dutchy of Luxembourg In respect of the Project Wage Imbalances in the European Labour Market. London, 29 September 2016 淘宝店铺 “Vivian研报” 首次收集整理 获取最新报告及后续更新服务请在淘宝搜索店铺 “Vivian研报” 或直
2、接用手机淘宝扫描下方二维码 2 Contents Introduction . 3 A new measure for wage cost competitiveness 5 Aggregate values and comparison with other EU countries . 8 Sectoral breakdown . 11 Conclusions 17 Annex - Equilibrium wages for selected manufacturing industries and Trade and repairs. . 19 Works Cited . 19 Abst
3、ract We propose a new method for estimating the competitiveness of wages in levels and not as usually done by unit labour indices. We define a new measure for equilibrium wages and find that overall the average labour cost level in Luxembourg was nearly 30.000 per year below this equilibrium. We the
4、n analyse sectoral wages. It appears that the competitive advantage in Luxembourg is concentrated in ITC, financial and public administration sectors. The manufacturing sector seems to be handicapped when compared to the average return of the Luxembourg macro-economy, but when it is compared to the
5、European manufacturing sector, it is very close to equilibrium. We conclude by asking some questions about the future evolution of the Luxemburg model. 3 Introduction The debate about the competitiveness of member states in the Euro Area has become more intense, and more controversial, since the Glo
6、bal Financial Crisis and the subsequent Euro crisis. Improving competitiveness is often seen as synonymous with wage cuts and austerity. However, lower wage costs do not always improve competitiveness. First of all, competitiveness can improve even when wages are rising, provided productivity improv
7、es as well. Second, when austerity reduces effective demand, productivity will slow down and this may cause a deterioration of competitiveness. Hence, assessing an economys labour cost competitiveness requires a more comprehensive analysis that integrates wage bargaining with productivity and growth
8、 theory. Measuring wage competitiveness is difficult. Eurostat produces a number of indicators based on nominal and real unit labour costs and compares them to other countries or country groups, but their informational content is uncertain and even sometimes contradictory. Figure 1 shows the unit la
9、bour cost (ULC) indices for Luxembourg and its immediate neighbours France, Germany and Belgium as published by the European Commissions AMECO data base. All time series are based on the year 2010. It looks as if nominal unit labour costs have increased much more rapidly in Luxembourg than in neighb
10、ouring countries since the start of European Monetary Union in 1999. Hence, one would conclude that the Grand Duchy has lost competitiveness against the 16 most important EU member states and against 34 industrialized countries. By contrast, Germany and the Euro Area in general seem to have improved
11、 their relative positions. After the financial crisis in 2008, wage increases have slowed down. In nominal terms the competitiveness loss for Luxembourg relative to the Euro Area is similar to most neighbouring countries, although German wages are now increasing much faster. However, when we look at
12、 real unit labour costs, which are the same as the wage share, the picture is inverted. If we discard the peeks and shocks of the financial crisis, there is a broad improvement in the labour cost competitiveness of Luxembourg because the wage share has fallen and the profit share has increased. So w
13、hich index gives a better picture of these competitive developments? In this paper we look at a new method for assessing the competitiveness of labour costs in the Euro Area and apply it to the case of Luxembourg. We define a new measure for equilibrium wage levels and find that overall the average
14、labour cost level in Luxembourg was nearly 30.000 per year below this equilibrium. This is dramatic. We then analyse sectoral wages. It appears that the competitive advantage in Luxembourg is concentrated in ITC, financial and public administration sectors. The manufacturing sector seems to be handi
15、capped when compared to the average return of the Luxembourg macro-economy, but when it is compared to the European manufacturing sector, it is very close to equilibrium. We conclude by making some suggestions how to deal with this situation. 4 Figure 1. Nominal and real Unit Labour Indexes (2010=10
16、0). Absolute and relative measures. Source: own elaboration on Eurostat 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 92949698000204060810121416 Nominal ULC 90.0 92.5 95.0 97.5 100.0 102.5 105.0 107.5 110.0 92949698000204060810121416 Real Unit Labour Costs 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 92949698000204060810121416 Nominal ULC relative to 16 EU countries 90.0 92.5 95.0 97.5 100.0 102.5 105.0 107.5 110.0 92949698000204060810121416 Real ULC relative to 15 EU countries 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 929496980002040608
