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1、外文翻译之一:Newer canons of common-stock investmentAuthors: BenjaminGrahamNationality: USASource: Security analysisReleased time and page numbers：1934 366375页The trend of earnings,although most dangerous as a sole basis for selection,may prove a useful indication of investment merit. If this approach is
2、a sound one, there may be formulated an acceptable canon of common-stock investment, containing the following elements:1. Investment is conceived as a group operation, in which diversification of risk is depended upon to yield a favorable average result.2. The individual issues are selected by means
3、 of qualitative and quantitative tests corresponding to those employed in the choice of fixed-value investments.3. A greater effort is made, than in the case of bond selection, to determine the future outlook of the issues considered.Secular Expansion as Basis. May the ownership of a carefully selec
4、ted, diversified group of common stocks, purchased at reasonable prices, be characterized as a sound investment policy? An affirmativeanswer may be developed from any one of three different kinds ofassumptions relating to the future of American business and the policyof selection that is followed. T
5、he first will posit that certain basic andlong-established elements in this countrys economic experience may stillbe counted upon. These are (1) that our national wealth and earningpower will increase, (2) that such increase will reflect itself in the increased resources and profits of our important
6、 corporations, and (3)that such increases will in the main take place through the normal processof investment of new capital and reinvestment of undistributed earnings. The third part of this assumption signifies that a broad causal connection exists between accumulating surplus and future earning p
7、ower, so that common-stock selection is not a matter purely of chance or guesswork but should be governed by an analysis of past records in relation to current market prices.If these fundamental conditions still obtain, then common stocks with suitable exhibits should on the whole present the same f
8、avorable opportunities in the future as they have for generations past. The cardinal defect of instability may not be regarded, therefore, as menacing the long-range development of common stocks as a whole. It does indeed exert a powerful temporary effect upon all business through the variations of
9、the economic cycle, and it has permanently adverse effects upon individual enterprises and single industries. But of these two dangers, the latter may be offset in part by careful selection and chiefly by wide diversification;the former may be guarded against by unvarying insistence upon the reasona
10、bleness of the price paid for each purchase.In our Introduction we point out that the experience of the last fifteen years weighs against this proposition. Without seeking to prophesy the future, may it not suffice to declare that the investor cannot safely rely upon a general growth of earnings to
11、provide both safety and profit over the long pull? In this respect it would seem that we are back to the investors attitude in 1913 with the difference that his caution then seemed needlessly blind to the powerful evidences of secular growth inherent in our economy. Our caution today would appear, a
12、t least, to be based on bitter experience and on the recognition of some newer and less promising factors in the whole business picture.Selection Based on Margin-of-safety Principle. The approach to common-stock investment is based on the margin-of-safety principle. If the analyst is convinced that
13、a stock is worth more than he pays for it, and if he is reasonably optimistic as to the companys future,he would regard the issue as a suitable component of a group investmentin common stocks. This attack on the problem lends itself to two possible techniques. One is to buy at times when the general
14、 market is low,measured by quantitative standards of value. Presumably the purchases would then be confined to representative and fairly active issues. The other technique would be employed to discover undervalued individual common stocks, which presumably are available even when the general market
15、is not particularly low. In either case the “margin of safety” resides in the discount at which the stock is selling below its minimum intrinsic value, as measured by the analyst. But with respect to the hazards and the psychological factors involved, the two approaches differ considerably.Factors C
16、omplicating Efforts to Exploit General Market Swings. A glance at the chart on page 6, showing the fluctuations of common-stock prices since 1900, would suggest that prices are recurrently too high and too low and that consequently there should be repeated opportunities to buy stocks at less than their value and to sell them out later at fair value or higher. A crude method of doing thisbut one apparently encouraged by the chart itselfwould consist sim
